The most accurate poll from the 2004 presidential election, the Investors Business Daily (IDB) poll, shows a phenomenal 20 point switch towards Senator McCain among Catholic voters . In the previous IDB tracking poll Senator Obama once held a commanding 11 point advantage among Catholic voters. In the latest tracking poll Senator McCain now has a nine (9) point lead among Catholic voters over Senator Obama. Senator McCain leads Senator Obama among Catholic voters 48% to 39%.
Speculation may be that the economic crisis has dissipated from the front pages as well as the Joe the Plumber drama that unveiled the redistributive policy of Senator Obama to America. But what I believe is the most influential aspect emanating from this interesting poll is that the recent spate of bishops coming out to in defense of the sanctity of life. Prelates such as Archbishop Chaput and Bishop Joseph Martino entering the national political arena and emphasizing that Catholics need to defend each person in all stages of life in addition to giving a correct interpretation of the USCCB’s Faithful Citizenship document. This may be the untold story of the election cycle thus far, Catholics understanding that the value of life trumpets all other issues.
Here are two (2) screen shots from the IDB poll. The first screen shot is only to show that the first column represents those voters leaning towards Senator Obama, the third column represents those voters leaning towards Senator McCain, and the third column represents those voters leaning ‘not sure’. The second screen shot shows those Catholic voters leaning in the respective columns.
This is the most recent IDB poll showing Senator McCain leading Senator Obama among Catholic voters 48% to 39% below in the red square.
These polls are fluid and many of us that defend life don’t take much particular interest in them. Though examining the variables behind the changing poll numbers do make for interesting water cooler talk. What we can take away from these numbers that there has been a shift towards Senator McCain and away from Senator Obama among Catholic voters. And that is an interesting development.
I wouldn’t trust IBD too much. Further down that first screenshot you can see that they have McCain ahead 74-22% among 18-24 year olds. Yeah right. Besides, any time you see a 20 point swing in any demographic it’s got to be exaggerated by polling error.
I agree with you. I noted that at the bottom of the my post.
The point that I was trying to make that there is some sort of shift towards Senator McCain among Catholic voters.
When I was driving home today, Huge Hewitt was saying the same thing… about the 20 point shift in the Catholic Vote. He was on CNN with Wolfe Bitlzer and he said what you were saying, and when they left; the CNN commentators were laughing at him.
There is a note that says that the 18-24 subsection is not reliable due to the small sample size taken, presumably because most don’t vote, they don’t poll many.
A couple of points, the IBD poll is the poll that most insiders closely watch. The young vote for McCain, as noted by Jeremy, receives an asterisk because there weren’t enough young people surveyed. However, keep in mind that despite the mainstream media telling you that every young person is going to vote Obama-Biden, many young people aren’t in the tank for Senator Obama. Finally, check out the 1972 election. Senator McGovern had huge crowds and lots of young people at them. Yet, Senator McGovern lost 49 states and the 18-30 vote.
I am so glad to see this trend. Sometimes, I think to myself, ‘What’s wrong with us Catholics?’ Then I see this trend and I see we are voting more and more pro-life. Thank goodness!
You know, every day, we get bombarded with the MSM telling us that “it’s over” and Obama will win. It can be very depressing, but I believe we must not give up and we must continue to fight for life. I really think McCain has a shot and we cannot give up! I pray the rosary every day and ask God to help this country elect the leader that follows in His ways.
My personal opinion is that Senator Obama has a 3-4 point lead. But the undecided’s are leaning towards Senator McCain but still trying to figure out if they see something in Senator Obama that the mainstream media continues to spew out worth voting for.
It’s going to be a nail-biter and it could go either way. In no way do I believe that Senator Obama is going to win or win in a landslide. If he does win, it’ll be something similar to the 2000 election. Except there won’t be recounts, it’s that the contests in so many states, especially Pennsylvania and Ohio, are going to be so close that the networks won’t announce a winner until the wee hours of the morning of November 5.
This is great news; and I agree, the bishops deserve the credit.
I can not believe that catholics are swinging for McCain. The republicans have used this issue to get votes from conservative christians. I am against abortion but voting Republican is not going to get rid of it. There are 5 catholic supreme court justices right now and we still have abortion. Abortion is not going to to away and voting for McCain is not going to help it. You have to look at all the issues and see what each candidate going to do but basing your vote on the abortion issue is voting for something that is not going to happen.
If Catholics go for McCain, but McCain loses anyway, what will happen to all those media stories about how critical the Catholic vote is?
It’s common filler for news stories to note how Catholics have gone with the presidential winner in the past X elections. Will the filler change, or will the news stories just stop running?
Patrick,
The Pro-Life movement is fighting an uphill battle. Just because there ‘may’ be 4-5 SCOTUS justices that ‘may’ potentially turn over Roe v. Wade doesn’t mean that it happens automatically. This takes time, but unfortunately we live in a culture where people expect instant gratification.
That is why prayer and fasting is so critical. This disciplines us in our fortitude for the right to life as well as helps us adjust to changing circumstances, especially if Senator Obama wins, to better cope with.
Your argument is a straw man. Though your concern is legitimate.
I can not believe that catholics are swinging for McCain.
Yes, I have seen reports saying the exact opposite.
It’s common filler for news stories to note how Catholics have gone with the presidential winner in the past X elections.
And really, it’s only filler, considering the almost 50-50 split we had during the last election. Catholics “went with the winner” but by what, 2% or something?
0bama’s stay at the hate church that makes all of Christianity look loony is another item to consider. The swing to McCain should be much larger.
Daledog,
Let’s pray and fast that’s true.
[…] from this poll. That is that Catholics are moving more into Senator McCain’s camp. A week ago American Catholicexamined polling data from the Investors Business Daily (IDB) poll showing Senator McCain gaining an […]