Hope and Despair

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The above video by Ben Howe neatly encapsulates why the Democrats are going to take a historic beating next month.  If a politician runs on a platform of Hope and Change he better deliver plenty of both.  Obama has delivered despair and a magnification of the trends that got us into the economic and fiscal morass we are in.  No one likes to be the mark of a con, and I think that a majority of voters now are firmly convinced that a massive con was played on the nation in 2008.

Josh Kraushaar at Hotline gives us a peek of the electoral storm that is in the process of being unleashed:

But when you look at the national polling metrics and the race-by-race picture in the House, there’s little evidence of any Democratic comeback. If anything, Republicans are in as strong a position to win back control of the House as they have been this entire election cycle.

Much of the newfound glimmer of hope comes from a misinterpretation of polling data released by Democratic campaigns and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Many of the polls aren’t all that encouraging for Dems, but have been spun to present a misleadingly optimistic picture.

In a House race, where many voters are unfamiliar with challengers until the very end, it’s not nearly as instructive to look at who’s winning as it is to see whether the incumbent is winning a majority of the vote. Traditionally, most of the undecided vote breaks toward the challenger — especially in a wave election. It’s not uncommon for a congressman to be up “double digits” but still be in serious trouble, given the anonymity of the opponent.

And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.

That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost — a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn’t yet been released, it’s very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.

The playing field is so large this year that it’s misleading to look at any one race to draw firm conclusions about the state of play across the country. Democrats are playing a high-stakes game of “Whack-A-Mole” — even when they successfully disqualify weak GOP challengers, another half-dozen races pop up on their radar screen.

Go here to read the rest. 

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  1. I’m beginning to feel that I really don’t care who wins in November.

    Just so long we take big cuts in government spending, shut down many, many government programs, lower taxes across the board and prepare to boot President Obama in 2012.

    That’s what’s going to happen, especially if President Obama continues to demonize those of us that make our own money in the private sector.

  2. There was no reason why any Catholic should have been a victim of a con game. He told us who he was from the beginning, but nobody was curious enough to follow up. E.g., every name on his Catholic advisory board were dissenting Catholics. That should have been the first clue. Secondly, a little Google search into J. Wright and Black Liberation Theology would have told us most of the rest. Thirdly, the attitude that gave rise to that long walk in Berlin and the Greek columns in Denver should have clinched it, but, if you needed a fourth, his voting record in Illinois and in the Senate couldn’t have been clearer. So dry the crocodile tears and pay more attention next time.

  3. Nothing personal intended, Tito. Just that it was Catholic voters who elected this president, and knowing that is a difficult thing to live with when it was all so obvious. As one of the characters in an Evelyn Waugh novel asks, “Where is the safest place to hide a leaf?” On the tree, of course. it was all there to be seen.

  4. Just so long we take big cuts in government spending, shut down many, many government programs, lower taxes across the board and prepare to boot President Obama in 2012.

    That’s what’s going to happen

    There are no givens, Tito. It will not happen by magic and it certainly will not happen at all if indifferent conservatives sit at home on Nov. 2. If the Dems lose control of Congress, the spigot can be shut off. We need to continue to hold the feet of the Republicans to the fire after the election so they don’t go back to their big spending ways. There will be no instant fixes – we’re in this for the long haul.

  5. Oh, and Donald, one of our favorite sources of entertainment, Joe “shoot from the lip” Biden came through for us again today when he told a crowd of listless (perhaps they were stoned?) Madison liberals that they were the dullest audience he had ever spoken to. Way to lay on the charm, Joe!

    I am starting to believe Biden hates us cheeseheads. He can barely set foot in Wisconsin without giving offense to the natives – several months ago, he insulted a custard store manager and today it was a friendly, if lethargic, Mad City bunch. Did a kid in a Packer jersey beat him up many moons ago? The VP’s scorn for my state hurts, and yet I am willing to swallow the pain and thereby invite Biden to return again and again to campaign nonstop for Feingold and Barrett. Joe, next time I advise wearing a purple Vikings jersey with a number “4” on it, which will make you universally beloved in the Badger State.

    As it is, I think that if Johnson and Walker manage to pull off wins in November, they should send Biden flowers, chocolates, and thank you notes.

  6. Biden, Donna, my unpaid staff writer! I think Obama probably just cringes at this point whenever one of his staffers begins a statement with the words, “Joe said yesterday..”

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