Remembrance of Predictions Past 2011

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Well, as the end of the year looms, it is time for me to review the predictions for the year 2011 that I made at the end of 2010.  Predictions for 2012 will be forthcoming after I eat some crow here:


1.  The global warming scam/sham will continue to unravel.  I only hope we recall this episode the next time elites around the globe use junk science as an excuse in order to attempt to remake civilization.

True.  We had the second release of e-mails on climate gate.  Canada withdrew from the Kyoto accords and almost all other nations appear to be ignoring them.  The UN Climate Conference which recently concluded put off doing anything to reduce carbon levels until 2020.

2.  The Republicans in the House will put a halt to Obama’s legislative agenda, and Obama will veto most bills originating in the House that make it to his desk.

Yes and No.  The House Republicans have put a stop to Obama’s legislative agenda, but they have not been able to get any of their own agenda through the Senate.

3.  There will be considerable friction between the GOP in the House and the Republican Rinos in the Senate.

Yes, and you can triple underline that prediction!

4.  The economy will begin to improve with unemployment ending the year around 7.5%.

Perhaps a very slight improvement, but unemployment is still at a ghastly 8.6%.

5.  Either the North Korean or the Iranian government will be toppled in a violent overthrow.

Not yet, but the signs are not good for either regime.  In the spring Iraq weathered a bout of huge protest marches and riots.  Now, Iran is undergoing constant huge explosions and sabotage.  Who is behind this?  Israel, the US, internal opposition, all of the above?  No one knows, but the inability of the Iranian regime to put a stop to it is a hot topic of conversation throughout Iran.

In regard to North Korea the latest Fearless Leader has bitten the dust, and his son, Fearless Leader III, is apparently not completely in control yet.  North Korea could blow at any time, or it could remain a Stalin museum peace for decades.  One safe prediction is that when it falls, it will be swift and bloody:  think Ceaucescu in Romania in 1989.  The problem for us with that analogy is that Ceaucescu, unlike the Stalinists in charge in North Korea, did not have nuclear weapons at his beck and call.  I hope the South Koreans have been attempting to bribe the relevant North Korean generals to act to keep the powers that be in North Korea from taking Seoul with them when they go.

6.  Republican controlled legislative chambers around the country will pass pro-life bills, continuing the process of chipping away at Roe.

True.  Go here for a rundown on some of the legislation.

7.  Obama’s foreign policy will face mounting opposition from the Left in this country, with liberal stalwarts making noises about mounting a primary challenge to Obama in 2012.

No challenge yet, but the dissatisfaction on the Left with Obama is palpable.  Go here to read a recent column by Jonathan Chait in which he tells his fellow liberals that Obama really isn’t as terrible as they think he is.  This does not mean they won’t vote for him, but the enthusiasm of 2008 is completely gone, and far fewer of them will be going door to door and “personing” phone banks to re-elect him.  Hard, very hard, when people realize that someone they thought was a secular messiah, is, after all, a fairly typical liberal politician from Chicago, with the emphasis always on politician.

8.  Palin will announce prior to July 1 as to whether she will run for President.

Nope, she waited until October. 

9.  The country will experience a renewed interest in the Civil War as we enter the Sesquicentennial of the War.

A slight renewal of interest.  With the new Lincoln film next year we might see more, although with Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln, the generated interest might be of the car crash variety.

10.  At least three cabinet members of the Obama administration will resign in 2011, and the first of the “tell-all” books about the administration by insiders will begin to appear.

Only one resigned, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and he had announced that he was going to resign in 2011 in 2010.  Rumors have circulated all year that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants to resign, but nothing yet.  However, the first tell-all book has appeared.

11.  The Euro will not exist as a currency at the end of 2011, as the unraveling of many economies in Europe causes Germany and the wealthier nations in the European Union to decide that it simply is not worth it to them to continue to prop up nations like Portugal, Greece and, (gulp!) Ireland.

Well it is still there, but just barely.  The Euro demonstrates yet again that it is impossible long term to have a currency without a political structure with the power to maintain it.  Of all the unicorns and fairy dust of the Euroweenie Paradise that has been trumpeted in America by leftists as something for us to emulate, the Euro currency fantasy has been the most dangerous, and its fall will be devastating to many national economies that built their prosperity on good intentions and outright fraud.  The Germans have wearied of this and are retreating to Fortress Deutschland rather than to continue to prop up the social welfare potemkins of much of the rest of Europe.

12.  McClarey will be dead wrong on some of his predictions.

As always, the safest of predictions.


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  1. 1. When you’re looking to validate your own predictions, you’re more conscious of confirming data than contradictory data. One of the biggest climate change stories of the year was Richard Muller’s attempt to correct for pro-CC bias and subsequent discovery that the advertised conclusions were still fairly close.

    5. Highly doubtful that Seoul has any contact with high level DPRK officials. North Korea should never have been allowed to obtain nukes. Now there’s no going back. The best case scenario is China-style market liberalization of a totalitarian nuclear state.

    6. The biggest abortion law story of the year was the defeat of the personhood amendment in Mississippi.

    11. I think this year proved that Europe will hang on to the Euro at all costs. You’ll get quantitative easing before any talk of the Euro’s demise.

  2. 4. Real unemployment, restore innumerable victims of Obama policies to the denominator, is north of 12%. The underemployment rate is about 20%.

    10. If there were justice, Holder would be in prison. “Without justice, government is mass brigandage.” St. Augustine.

    11. The euro will exist. But, it’ll take 100 of ’em for a litre of bier. That is economic tragedy!

    FYI: The US taxpayer is indirectly (the Fed) “on the hook”, i.e., at risk for at least $81 billion in euro/dollar swaps paid by the Fed. It could easily run to hundreds of billions if Bernanke and Obama are not stopped.

    Two weeks ago they pulled off the “Long-Term Refinancing Operation” wherein 523 broke banks borrowed (low cost, three years) $640 billion from the European Central Bank to cover deposit runs. The 523 banks posted collateral basically worthless PIIGS sovereign debt securities as collateral. Kicked that can three years down the road. It does nothng to solve the problems.

    1. There will never again be a significant snowfall in the NYC Metro area. That has nothing to do with climate change. It’s because our sons combined their money and bought us a snow blower – six forward, two reverse gears- fancier than my ride. I said they could have saved hundreds of dollars and bought Mother a new snow shovel.

    Also, the ideologues’ research is aimed at supporting the chimera that CC is man-affected so man can be controlled and forced to live like slaves. Their research supports what they believe will achieve their ideology: saddle man with (high fuel and food prices) so they can take away his liberty and property.

    College profs and scientists have been taught what to believe: ideology, not how to think. Their research is aimed at supporting the cause not finding the truth.

  3. RR-
    Richard Muller’s shtick isn’t exactly conflict-free– his co-author is calling shenanigans, and seems rather…peeved that he pushed misleading information into the papers before the study was even peer reviewed. Seems the press releases just happened to come out while anyone who would nay-say was under confidentiality agreements.

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