Why Most Presidential Horserace Polls Are Rubbish

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Datech Guy explains why most presidential horserace polls are, to put it politely, worse than useless:

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site.  It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004.  Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say:  “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve  been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

Go here to read the brilliant rest.  Most presidential horserace polls are assuming a Democrat advantage at the polls this fall of D-7, which is the advantage the Democrats had in 2008.  That simply isn’t going to happen after the failed Obama Presidency.  In 2010 the parties had roughly equal amounts turn out at the polls.  I imagine that the election result this year will range from parity to a D-2 advantage.  Assuming Romney wins the independents, as most polls show him doing, a D-2 electorate would lead to a Romney victory.  Parity would be a Reagan 1980 landslide.

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  1. The DaTechGuy is using data only from 2000 and up.

    I hope he’s correct, because, if he is, then we are looking at something akin to a Reagan landslide for Romney.

    One caveat I can add to these polls, most people have been cowered into believing they’re racist simply for holding an opinion contrary to the meme that the MSM constantly puts out.

    So it could be the case that no one wants to be labeled as racist so they tell pollsters that they will vote for Obama, which in reality they mostly likely will vote for Romney once they close the screen behind them to vote in the booth.

  2. Austin Ruse, the President of C-FAM, a UN NGO that promotes the Catholic family in the UN, had his car keyed, tires slashed, and windows broken simply because he had a “Vote for Romney” bumper sticker on his car.

    He works and lives in DC.

    Can you imagine the hateful climate there?

  3. The prospect of a Romney landslide is potentially a pretty alarming one. The media has been bleating, “Close race! Close race!” for so long now that an overwhelming Romney victory could trigger a riotous response from the losers.

    Of course, if Romney wins a real squeaker, it’ll be Y2K all over again, on steroids. Let’s shoot for a 7% margin in the popular vote, like in 2008… 😉

  4. The mainstream media with the Obama convention bounce last week was trying to sell the meme that the race was over and Obama had won. Now that the Obama convention bounce has dissipated it will be interesting to see them ignore the polls. Today the Rasmussen Tracker has Romney 47-Obama 45. The Gallup Tracker has Obama 47-Romney 46. Translate the Gallup tracker into a likely voter Tracker like Rasmussen, and they would both show a slight Romney lead.

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