Soon To Be Released Polls Show Religious & Midwest Voters Moving To Romney

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Just a quick update to my post of some two weeks ago; I exchanged e-mails with two prominent pollsters who told me that not only are religious voters moving toward Governor Romney in a big way (we expected that) but so are voters in the Midwest. One of the pollsters read my article on The Data and Demographics That Detail Why Romney Defeats Obama in Ohio.

He told me he was “amazed” at the shifting demographics in Ohio in areas of the state that would help Governor Romney and hurt President Obama. He indicated that many pollsters hadn’t taken this into account (lots of population shifts since the Economic Upheaval of 2008.) This particular pollster, who you probably have seen on TV and or read his highly respected polls, is currently working on polls in Ohio and other Midwest states.

The other pollster told me that the religious vote which strongly went for Senator McCain in 2008 will be easily surpassed by 2012 totals. Now anything can happen from here to election day, yet as Don explained in his post on the Fat Lady Warming Up these are not bounces but surges. As I indicated in my just released book, The Catholic Tide Continues to Turn, the religious faithful are persistent and though they certainly don’t hang out with the pop culture and media movers and shakers and because of this are often overlooked, that doesn’t mean they won’t be heard at the ballot box on Election Day.

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  1. Well the U of Colorado model by Berry and Bickers predicted several months ago that most Midwest states would go for Romney including Ohio, PA, WI and MN. I still think Iowa will go for Romney although the model predicted it would stay for Obama. I believe Bush 43 came reasonably close in 2004 to sweeping the Midwest apart from IL. If the Repubs cannot lock up the Midwest for a generation after all that the national and local Dems have done to them over the years (eg flyover country, bitter clingers) it’s hopeless.

  2. Rozin, keep in mind of the liberal history of Wisconsin and Minnesota and even Iowa to some extent. The Progressive Party (the 1924 LaFollette version) was very strong in Wisconsin and the Democratic Farm Labor Party was and still is very active in Minnesota. Some elements of these groups were very Left for their era. They live on in today and conservatism has a hard time breaking into some of these strongholds, even though some of these folks may be somewhat socially conservative. The last time Minnesota went GOP was 1972.

    While many on the coasts think the Midwest is all rural, though it is primarily the case in area, it is not the case in population centers (Off the top of my head I believe Pennsylvania has the highest rural population in America.) There are more people than you would think in certain midwest cities who live in urbane enclaves and wish they were in NYC or DC. As I indicated in my previous article on demographics, this is juxtaposed by a suburban populace that votes 2-1 against everything those in the urbane areas stand for. In the last three Ohio election cycles, it has been who can get the bigger turnout.

  3. Mr Hartline,

    First thank you for a very detailed and careful exposition in your Ohio post. Yes I understand the history of these states. Also those state predictions were by the model not myself. I was just commenting personally about Iowa. I would be surprised if MN goes Repub too. However many of these states went for Reagan and even for Bush 41 in 1988. In addition Bush43 came somewhat close to sweeping them (except IL) in 2004. My point is simply that the Repubs need to make a more forceful effort to get these states. As we have seen with the Mountain states a few fleeing Californians can tip the balance in these lightly populated states to the Dems and FL and VA are no longer rock solid. If the Repubs don’t nail the Midwest down where do they go??

  4. Rozin, excellent post. First of all let me say this about demographics. As much I like the research, they are only as valid as the current election. Case in point; in 1974 Democrats were ecstatic thinking that by 1976 they would have a foothold on the electorate for a generation. It didn’t turn out that way, had you told them that in 1980 America would vote in an old Hollywood actor and the youth would be his biggest fans, many would think they you were ingesting something that might be a felony.

    The Midwest is crucial to the GOP but President GW Bush won in 2004 without Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois. If Governor Romney would win and the youthful and athletic Paul Ryan and Senator Rubio continue to play a big roll in GOP politics, I could see a big upswing of young and Hispanic voters coming the GOP’s way. President Obama took advantage of a once in a lifetime perfect storm for the Democrats. However, it is doubtful that the sequence of events (economic meltdown, unpopular foreign policy and a charismatic candidate with a star studded entourage) will ever align themselves (at least in our lifetime, I am 48.) Time will tell.

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