Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 6:32pm

Soon To Be Released Polls Show Religious & Midwest Voters Moving To Romney

Just a quick update to my post of some two weeks ago; I exchanged e-mails with two prominent pollsters who told me that not only are religious voters moving toward Governor Romney in a big way (we expected that) but so are voters in the Midwest. One of the pollsters read my article on The Data and Demographics That Detail Why Romney Defeats Obama in Ohio.

He told me he was “amazed” at the shifting demographics in Ohio in areas of the state that would help Governor Romney and hurt President Obama. He indicated that many pollsters hadn’t taken this into account (lots of population shifts since the Economic Upheaval of 2008.) This particular pollster, who you probably have seen on TV and or read his highly respected polls, is currently working on polls in Ohio and other Midwest states.

The other pollster told me that the religious vote which strongly went for Senator McCain in 2008 will be easily surpassed by 2012 totals. Now anything can happen from here to election day, yet as Don explained in his post on the Fat Lady Warming Up these are not bounces but surges. As I indicated in my just released book, The Catholic Tide Continues to Turn, the religious faithful are persistent and though they certainly don’t hang out with the pop culture and media movers and shakers and because of this are often overlooked, that doesn’t mean they won’t be heard at the ballot box on Election Day.

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Rozin
Rozin
Thursday, October 18, AD 2012 2:36pm

Well the U of Colorado model by Berry and Bickers predicted several months ago that most Midwest states would go for Romney including Ohio, PA, WI and MN. I still think Iowa will go for Romney although the model predicted it would stay for Obama. I believe Bush 43 came reasonably close in 2004 to sweeping the Midwest apart from IL. If the Repubs cannot lock up the Midwest for a generation after all that the national and local Dems have done to them over the years (eg flyover country, bitter clingers) it’s hopeless.

Rozin
Rozin
Thursday, October 18, AD 2012 5:44pm

Mr Hartline,

First thank you for a very detailed and careful exposition in your Ohio post. Yes I understand the history of these states. Also those state predictions were by the model not myself. I was just commenting personally about Iowa. I would be surprised if MN goes Repub too. However many of these states went for Reagan and even for Bush 41 in 1988. In addition Bush43 came somewhat close to sweeping them (except IL) in 2004. My point is simply that the Repubs need to make a more forceful effort to get these states. As we have seen with the Mountain states a few fleeing Californians can tip the balance in these lightly populated states to the Dems and FL and VA are no longer rock solid. If the Repubs don’t nail the Midwest down where do they go??

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