Lat week, in a post that may be read here, I noted that Michael Barone, the most astute political analyst of the American political scene, predicted that Romney would win. Yesterday in the Washington Examiner he gave his electoral vote prediction:
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto bailout issue. Obama.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
Barone is a careful sober analyst and not a partisan. You can bet these predictions sent shock waves through the inner circles of both campaigns yesterday.
I don’t mean to put a damper on this, but Barone also predicted Sharon Anfle would defeat Harry Reid in 2010.
“Landslide” is not an appropriate term for the electoral college. It usually magnifies two-party popular vote margins although in 2004 it did not. I don’t think Barone is predicting a 10 point popular vote margin. I would take a narrow Romney margin (less than 2%) in the popular vote but it would bode ill for the country (see the UK).
“but Barone also predicted Sharon Anfle would defeat Harry Reid in 2010.”
Along with virtually every pollster who looked at that race. I have always wondered if Reid won or stole that race.
http://redstaterocketeer.blogspot.com/2010/10/nevada-voting-machines-automatically.html
In 2008 Barone called it for Obama.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Reid stole Nevada. I’m just afraid that Obama and company will use that template nationally.
“I’m just afraid that Obama and company will use that template nationally.”
That would be a very, very poor choice on their part.
Additionally, considering how many states are controlled by Republicans I doubt if it would be possible.
Let us hope and pray that Mr. Barone is on the money.
D McC says “I have always wondered if Reid won or stole that race.”
My impression is that it was won on turnout. Harry made sure his union and Hispanic voters turned out while the Republican Party made no great effort for a candidate they disliked.
“I have always wondered if Reid won or stole that race.”
Harry Reid steal an election? Nooo! You don’t think Harry would do such a thing now would you? In any event, I hope Barron is right.
Barone was just on Huckabee on Fox taking a look at each of the swing states. I would love to have a tenth of the knowledge of that man when it comes to voting patterns in each state.
“intensity among rural, small-town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles”
That was, I presume, a big part of the reason for Reagan’s surprise (at least to the media) landslide win in 1980. If I remember correctly (I was 16 at the time and not yet old enough to vote), all the talking heads and various polls had Carter and Reagan running neck and neck right up to the end, and it was only in the final week or so that internal (not publicized at the time) polling indicated that Reagan had jumped ahead. Is history repeating itself here?
Its been interesting comparing the enthusiasm and size of the Romney rallies with those of Obama. Romney has been drawing huge, boisterous crowds. Obama has been drawing small crowds for a President, many of them bussed in Union members. Yeah, I think the Mainstream Media is completely in the dark regarding the nature of this election.
Thank you, Donald, this bucks me up. I am one nervous Nellie – my stomach is in knots. I admit, I am finding the polls baffling. All the trends look to be working in R/R’s favor – a huge lead among white men, a narrowing of the gap among women, Romney leading among independents – and yet polls show the race tied or Obama with a slight lead. On an anecdotal level, I’ve worked the phones for RR and one gentleman told me the other day that he would crawl over ground glass and then swim across a pool filled with rubbing alcohol to vote for Romney. I’ve heard similiar sentiments from other Republicans and there are a surprising number of RR signs in liberal neighborhoods here. I saw the same thing during the Walker recall effort, and I don’t remember seeing ANY McCain signs in the same neighborhoods in ’08.
At the same time, I don’t want to kid myself by telling myself the polls mean nothing. I feel like I’m going crazy or living in some alternate universe when I look at the polls, which defy logic. But then I don’t understand how anybody could vote for 4 more years of Obama.
An observation from downstate Illinois, which is about 53-47 in favor of Romney (but unfortunately, can’t overcome the 80-20 Obama advantage in Cook County):
The greatest concentration of Obama/Biden signs that I have seen has been in a wealthy enclave of Springfield known as Leland Grove. Older, stately established neighborhood favored by doctors, lawyers, lobbyists, etc. I counted about 8 Obama signs within an area roughly 5 blocks square, about a week ago. (There were about 4 or 5 Romney signs in the same general area.)
However, the last time I passed through the predominantly African-American part of town (about 3 weeks ago) I did not see ANY Obama signs along the route — though by now that might have changed — but there were plenty of signs for other, local Democratic candidates. Nor have I seen any Obama signs in the middle/working class neighborhoods where they were all over the place 4 years ago.
Three other analysts are calling for Romney to win by a landside: Dick Morris, George F. Will, and Wayne Allyn Root.
Thank God, Romney will be President in 2013.
Elaine Krewer: “That was, I presume, a big part of the reason for Reagan’s surprise (at least to the media) landslide win in 1980. If I remember correctly (I was 16 at the time and not yet old enough to vote), all the talking heads and various polls had Carter and Reagan running neck and neck right up to the end, and it was only in the final week or so that internal (not publicized at the time) polling indicated that Reagan had jumped ahead. Is history repeating itself here?”
IIRC, that’s not the case; Reagan was leading for a couple of months, at least. What changed at the end was the margin.
Well, well, well. a Thomas C. Joyce from Buffalo, who I assume is the Thomas C. Joyce who teaches English Lit at Canisius, the Jesuit college located there, dropped by to unleash what I assume he thought was a clever stink bomb:
“So, with all that enthusiasm for Govenor Romney, and even blacks turning against Obama, I guess the MSM and all their fancy “Polls” loo foolish.
How did the election turn out? Did anyone get a chance to see Romney’s Victory Speech. He didn’t even write a concession speech, he was so confident.”
Enjoy your pro-abort parties’ time at the top of the political wheel Professor. Such moments tend to be brief and are to be treasured. Put 2010 out of your mind as you gloat, forget about the problems facing the nation and the threat to religious freedom posed by the administration you support and simply enjoy yourself. In the meantime, we will go about our work helping to make certain that the victory you bask in now will be ephemeral.