Angels, Fools and Predictions

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A week from now the midterm elections will occur, and, as usual, The American Catholic will be hosting live blog reports and analysis.  After my less than stellar predictions of 2012, I am somewhat reluctant to make a forecast, but never fearing to rush in where all sensible angels fear to tread, here are my predictions.

 

In the House, the Republicans will gain 15-20 seats.

In the Senate the Republicans will gain 7 seats and capture control of the Senate.

In Governorships there will be no net change.

In legislative seats held the Republicans will equal their net number high mark reached in 2010.

 

What are your predictions?

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5 Comments

  1. I’ll just transmit what you can derive from Rothenberg (state legislatures not reported):

    3 Seat gain in the House of Representatives (they’d have to win 60% of the contestable seats to gain 10, per Rothenberg).
    6 Seat gain in the Senate
    1 loss in Governor’s chairs.

    If they do not blow it, or you do not have a Franken/Gregoire scenario where all sorts of ‘uncounted’ ballots start showing up in the weeks after the election. The unions, elements of the bar, and Democratic politicos have pulled out every stop in their efforts to get Gov. Walker in Wisconsin. The smart money says that’s the race to attend to most closely re ballot security.

    If they do take Congress, I hope McConnell will have the sense to dispose of what’s left of the filibuster and pepper BO with reform legislation (or what reforms he can get past Susan Collins and other abrasions). It’ll be amusing to watch BO’s reaction if he does not have dirty Harry’s skirts to hide behind; sulk turns into frenzy?

  2. Rothenberg today:

    “Not only are there more Republican opportunities, but new ones are popping up in unexpected places.

    Three Democratic open seats — in Utah, North Carolina and upstate New York — are sure to flip, and another seat in Illinois looks ready to fall. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, and the question is how much of the iceberg isn’t yet visible.

    Until recently, I was skeptical about former Rep. Nan Hayworth’s chances of regaining her New York seat and Republican prospects in Bruce Braley’s Iowa open seat. But both districts are very much in play as Election Day approaches.

    Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, Ami Bera of California, Brad Schneider of Illinois, Nick J. Rahall II of West Virginia and Rick Nolan of Minnesota are all in serious trouble.

    The big question is whether Republican gains will reach into second- or third-tier races. If that happens, GOP net House gains could grow from the middle- or high-single digits to the double digits, or even into the teens.

    All of the talk about the number of tossup races is correct. The outcome is not yet clear. But that should not obscure the GOP’s advantages or hide the distinct possibility that Republicans will have a remarkably good year in House and Senate races.”

    http://www3.blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/elections-2014-senate-house-races-stu-rothenberg/?dcz

  3. Donald I remembered that Thomas More is the patron of politicians, but I wondered who we might pray to for a fair election process. So I looked up “patron saint of elections” Guess who… Chad.
    remembering all the counting in Florida a couple of cycles ago, that made me laugh.
    Chad of Mercer, pray for us and help us in this upcoming election.

  4. Saint Chad was “proclaimed” the patron saint of elections by people unknown after Florida in 2000. A good saint to request intercession for honest elections might be Saint Matthias who was chosen by the other Apostles to take the place of Judas.

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