Predictions for 2016

“Bernie Sanders will bolt the convention and run third party, drawing about two percent of the vote.”

There’s no chance whatsoever Bernie will be anything other than a good Democrat. He’s such a feckless, gutless wonder when it comes to Hillary that he’ll fall in line.

I’ve long suspected that the media have been stupefying incurious about Hildebeast’s period incommunicado coincident to her departure from Foggy Bottom, just as they were stupefyingly incurious about Webster Hubbell’s ‘consulting fees’. Unless she suffers something she can’t hide for a month, I do not imagine she’s withdrawing from the race. As long as we’re being morbid, around about March 2017, the Hot Springs Lounge Lizard reaches a milestone of sorts: he’ll be the longevity record holder of three generations of Blythe and Cassidy men and running behind only the sister he’s apparently never met and a couple of paternal side aunts. Compare pictures of the Big He to pictures of Walter Mondale (18 years his senior), Michael Dukakis (13 years his senior), Gary Hart (10 years his senior), Richard Gephardt (seven years his senior), George W. Bush (his age), Donald Trump (his age), Mitt Romney (some months his junior), Dan Quayle (some months his junior), and Albert Gore (a year and change his junior) and tell me who looks older than who. What’s Hildebeast gonna do with just Huma and Sidney Blumenthal advising her?
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No clue where this is going vis a vis the presidential contest, which is in uncharted territory. You’re 4th and 5th predictions would be quite likely if nothing out of the ordinary had happened, as the incumbent’s party loses market share the 3d, 4th, and 5th time they attempt to retain the presidency. The one notable exception was 1904, when the Democratic Party nominated a judge unknown outside the New York bar. So, we nominate a loose-cannon real estate developer and what happens?
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Re Sanders: the most plausible explanation for his bouquets to the Clintons I’ve heard is that he’s running to establish a constituency and does not actually want the job (which is perfectly sensible given his age). Must disagree with Dale Price. His affiliation with the Democratic Party is comparatively recent and, ca. 1984, he was dismissive of Michael Harrington and others who favored working through the Democratic Party. His organization in Burlington was very much an antagonist of the Democrats there. He’s not a party loyalist at heart. If the Sanders votaries in my family are any guide, he’s not selling Trotskyism to anyone, either; the Clinton’s are considered big-money shills. I’d like it if Sanders supporters were fed up with the common crookery within the Democratic Party, but I don’t think they acknowledge it or acknowledge it without being pressed.
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Unfortunately, the most secure prediction is that the Republicans will accomplish nothing if they do win the presidency and Congress, or accomplish nothing other than some noodling with marginal tax rates and pitching some candy to the skeezy lobbyist for the Chamber of Commerce. You’ll have Addison Mitchell McConnell to thank for that.
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Things I’d like to see happen: Paul Ryan, Renee Elmers, and Kelly Ayotte getting chucked out of office by primary challengers, and Rubio imploding completely.

I think the prediction you got wrong is #10, where you predicted you got some predictions wrong. Wait, no, that’ll create a logic spiral. But I do suspect that your political predictions are very close to the mark.

My big suspicion: Ted Cruz realizes that he has two modes: human being and lawyer. He knows that when he’s being one of them, he doesn’t look like the other. (This is why he isn’t attacking Trump, by the way; he knows that if he does, he’ll scorch the earth and alienate everyone who’s even thought about voting for Trump.)

My prediction: He figures out how to humanize his image, and by Super Tuesday has the race pretty well in hand. He’ll eventually choose Chris Christie as running mate / pit bull. Cruz will be all polite until the first debate begins, and what follows…will be a throttling. Clinton will try to pull the “he’s bullying a girl” thing, and it’ll surprisingly backfire in the polls. After the second debate goes even worse for her, her camp will cancel the third one.

The surprise issue of the campaign will be the skyrocketing murder rate in major US cities. Cruz and Christie, two prosecutor-types, will come out way ahead of a family rights / health care industry lawyer.

One other prediction: after some major flops, Hollywood will be asking itself if this is the end of the era of the superhero movie.

Vermont is a lot like Marin County, California but with less pleasant weather.

Thanks, Doug. But you’ve got to have noticed it, when Cruz’s eyes go all black like a shark’s and he repeats what the other person says word-for-word, then lists each error point by point, then digests the other person completely except for the pelvis and jawbone. He’s never 30% that person; he’s either 0% or 100%.