Predictions for 2016

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Well, here I stroll once again in where angels fear to tread and make my predictions for 2016:

  1.  The GOP national ticket will consist of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, but I am uncertain as to which of them will be the nominee for President.
  2. By the time of the conventions Donald Trump will be a spent force.  He will run third party in the fall with a Democrat in the second slot.  He will draw about seven percent of the vote, and his votes will come from both parties.
  3. Clinton will win the Democrat nomination, unless health problems force her to retire from the race.  Bernie Sanders will bolt the convention and run third party, drawing about two percent of the vote.
  4. The Republicans will win the presidential race.
  5. The Republicans will retain control of both Houses of Congress.



6.  The Vatican will be rocked by a series of “kiss and tell” books from disgruntled Vatican insiders

7.   US ground forces will go into combat against ISIS.

8.   There will be a naval clash between Japan and China.

9.    Mark Shea will continue to win friends and influence people.

10.   McClarey will be wrong in some of his predictions.


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  1. Mac,
    I pray that you are correct on the first five. Cruz is my man. The insiders fear and loath him. Sadly, Rubio is a no go. If he’s top of ticket, I will be chasing Adirondack deer on Election Day.
    Second five: 2. maybe unnecessary. Iraqi/Irani troops seem on the ascendancy against the murderous rabble.
    Add 6. McClarey will be providing excellent Catholic content.
    Hope/pray for the best. Prepare for the worst.

  2. “Bernie Sanders will bolt the convention and run third party, drawing about two percent of the vote.”

    There’s no chance whatsoever Bernie will be anything other than a good Democrat. He’s such a feckless, gutless wonder when it comes to Hillary that he’ll fall in line.

  3. Perhaps, perhaps not:

    I am getting a John Anderson circa 1980 race vibe from the Sanders campaign, except Sanders, with his far left views, is where the heart and soul of the Democrat party is, while Anderson was the avatar of dying liberal Republicanism. With his recent apology to Clinton, he does come across as a weak sister, but campaigns often get away from candidates and take on a life of their own. We shall see.

  4. I’ve long suspected that the media have been stupefying incurious about Hildebeast’s period incommunicado coincident to her departure from Foggy Bottom, just as they were stupefyingly incurious about Webster Hubbell’s ‘consulting fees’. Unless she suffers something she can’t hide for a month, I do not imagine she’s withdrawing from the race. As long as we’re being morbid, around about March 2017, the Hot Springs Lounge Lizard reaches a milestone of sorts: he’ll be the longevity record holder of three generations of Blythe and Cassidy men and running behind only the sister he’s apparently never met and a couple of paternal side aunts. Compare pictures of the Big He to pictures of Walter Mondale (18 years his senior), Michael Dukakis (13 years his senior), Gary Hart (10 years his senior), Richard Gephardt (seven years his senior), George W. Bush (his age), Donald Trump (his age), Mitt Romney (some months his junior), Dan Quayle (some months his junior), and Albert Gore (a year and change his junior) and tell me who looks older than who. What’s Hildebeast gonna do with just Huma and Sidney Blumenthal advising her?

    No clue where this is going vis a vis the presidential contest, which is in uncharted territory. You’re 4th and 5th predictions would be quite likely if nothing out of the ordinary had happened, as the incumbent’s party loses market share the 3d, 4th, and 5th time they attempt to retain the presidency. The one notable exception was 1904, when the Democratic Party nominated a judge unknown outside the New York bar. So, we nominate a loose-cannon real estate developer and what happens?

    Re Sanders: the most plausible explanation for his bouquets to the Clintons I’ve heard is that he’s running to establish a constituency and does not actually want the job (which is perfectly sensible given his age). Must disagree with Dale Price. His affiliation with the Democratic Party is comparatively recent and, ca. 1984, he was dismissive of Michael Harrington and others who favored working through the Democratic Party. His organization in Burlington was very much an antagonist of the Democrats there. He’s not a party loyalist at heart. If the Sanders votaries in my family are any guide, he’s not selling Trotskyism to anyone, either; the Clinton’s are considered big-money shills. I’d like it if Sanders supporters were fed up with the common crookery within the Democratic Party, but I don’t think they acknowledge it or acknowledge it without being pressed.

    Unfortunately, the most secure prediction is that the Republicans will accomplish nothing if they do win the presidency and Congress, or accomplish nothing other than some noodling with marginal tax rates and pitching some candy to the skeezy lobbyist for the Chamber of Commerce. You’ll have Addison Mitchell McConnell to thank for that.

    Things I’d like to see happen: Paul Ryan, Renee Elmers, and Kelly Ayotte getting chucked out of office by primary challengers, and Rubio imploding completely.

  5. is where the heart and soul of the Democrat party is,

    He has a constituency, but the Democratic Party is much more about mobilizing a grab bag of subcultures against the mainstream than it is about equalitarianism. Sanders is an old left denizen who has taken care to limit the degree to which he gets under the skin of Vermont’s electorate. Please note: Vermont is the least urbanized slice of North America this side of the Canadian Arctic.

  6. I think the prediction you got wrong is #10, where you predicted you got some predictions wrong. Wait, no, that’ll create a logic spiral. But I do suspect that your political predictions are very close to the mark.

    My big suspicion: Ted Cruz realizes that he has two modes: human being and lawyer. He knows that when he’s being one of them, he doesn’t look like the other. (This is why he isn’t attacking Trump, by the way; he knows that if he does, he’ll scorch the earth and alienate everyone who’s even thought about voting for Trump.)

    My prediction: He figures out how to humanize his image, and by Super Tuesday has the race pretty well in hand. He’ll eventually choose Chris Christie as running mate / pit bull. Cruz will be all polite until the first debate begins, and what follows…will be a throttling. Clinton will try to pull the “he’s bullying a girl” thing, and it’ll surprisingly backfire in the polls. After the second debate goes even worse for her, her camp will cancel the third one.

    The surprise issue of the campaign will be the skyrocketing murder rate in major US cities. Cruz and Christie, two prosecutor-types, will come out way ahead of a family rights / health care industry lawyer.

    One other prediction: after some major flops, Hollywood will be asking itself if this is the end of the era of the superhero movie.

  7. I hope you’re wrong about Cruz and Rubio!!!! I have always voted, and we have nothing to show for it except a bunch of Republicans keeping their heads down. Trump isn’t in, I will not vote!!!!

  8. Vermont is a lot like Marin County, California but with less pleasant weather.

    Over 80% of the population of Marin County lives in a suburban bloc on the bay side wherein there are more than 200,000 people. The per capita personal income of Marin County exceeds the national mean by a factor of 2.14. The per capital personal income of Vermont is almost precisely the national mean and 85% of the population in the state lives in small towns or in the countryside. No, Vermont is not like Marin County.

  9. Thanks, Doug. But you’ve got to have noticed it, when Cruz’s eyes go all black like a shark’s and he repeats what the other person says word-for-word, then lists each error point by point, then digests the other person completely except for the pelvis and jawbone. He’s never 30% that person; he’s either 0% or 100%.

  10. I can’t predict but I feel something will happen that will change the political landscape completely.
    There is lots of talk about who can beat Hillary Clinton but I can’t see her as their candidate. I don’t think there is that much steam in the machine anymore. I agree that the republicans will win and I hope the new president appoints his current fellow contenders to State, Defense, etc

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