Cruz Wins Kansas and Maine Caucuses; Trump Wins Louisiana Primary and Kentucky Caucuses

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cruz-trump

 

Cruz takes the Kansas Caucuses held today.  Interesting in that the latest polls showed Trump ahead.  It turned out that it wasn’t close.  With 25% of the vote counted, Cruz has 50% to Trump with 25%.  Rubio trails at 13% with Kasich bringing up the rear with 10%.  Kentucky and Maine are also holding caucuses today and Louisiana a primary.  More results as they come in.

 

Update:  8:00  PM  CST-Fox calls the Maine caucuses for Cruz.  Trump second, Kasich and Rubio a distant third and fourth.

Update:  8:05  PM  CST-Fox calls the Nebraska Democrat caucuses for Sanders.

Update:  8:17  PM  CST-Fox calls Louisiana for Clinton.

Update:  8:30  PM CST-AP calls Louisiana for Trump.  He currently has a two to one margin over Cruz with 23%, Rubio is at 19% and John Kasich at 3%.

Update:  5:08  AM  CST-Trump narrowly wins Kentucky Caucuses with 35%, Cruz follows with 16%, Rubio at 16% and Kasich at 14%.  The victory margin for Trump in Louisiana was quite a bit narrower ultimately than it first appeared:  Trump:  41%, Cruz 37%, Rubio 11% and Kasich at 6%.

Analysis:  If Trump is going to be stopped, only Cruz has shown the ability to do so.  If Rubio stays in now, he must assume the role of a deliberate spoiler to ensure a Trump victory.  Kasich is staying in for no reason I can discern other than hope that Trump as nominee would pick him as Veep for the spoiler role he has played.

 

 

 

 

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14 Comments

  1. Kasich is too far out to have a chance so he should drop out. We could then better understand how strong Trump is. Take Kentucky as an example… If Kasich’s votes were in Rubio’s, Cruz’, or Trump’s tallies, we would have a better sense of how competitive Rubio and Cruz really are.

  2. If the candidates who pulled out give the majority of their delegates to Cruz, and Kasich and Rubio pull out to make it a Cruz on Trump race, I think Cruz could beat Trump, as the others are splitting the vote. I realize Cruz would not pick up all the delegates and votes, but I think he would pick up enough.
    Interesting times, but I hope and pray that Ted Cruz gets there.

  3. Only Trump has the broad appeal to beat Hillary. So ironic that establish Republicans want him dead and don’t like Cruz either. What a mess. At the present moment my guess is Hillary has it considering the circular firing squad.

  4. I saw an op-ed the other week noting that Trump wins open primaries but loses caucuses and closed primaries. Some of the media have noted lower turnout at Democrats primaries but haven’t made the connection. I don’t know how many of the upcoming primaries are open or closed but that may be a determining factor.

  5. Only Trump has the broad appeal to beat Hillary.

    ???
    I haven’t seen any of my Democrat friends and relatives– or even the trolls on World of Warcraft– actually argue for her.
    That assumes that she doesn’t get jailed, for that matter.

  6. Foxfire,
    .
    Do your Democrat friends and relatives support Bernie the commie pinko geriatric Sanders? He, being a true believer in socialism, is far more dangerous than either Donald Trump or Livia Drusilla Augusta Caesar.

  7. Sadly, most of my Democrat associates are public school educated, and went to college, so they don’t recognize socialism as the deadly ideology it is. The false old saw of “if you drive on public roads, you support socialism” gets pulled out a lot.
    ***
    I can’t agree that he’d be more dangerous, because (thank God!) a lot of his more insane/dangerous ideas wouldn’t have support, and he doesn’t have the political resources/obligations that Hillary or Trump would bring in. The stuff he can do is in line with what they would most likely do.
    .
    Objectively, his philosophy is worse– but the judgement on if what he’d be able to actually do is just that, a judgment. (Our house is currently torn on if he’d be better or worse, with the more intelligent and better informed parts arguing that he wouldn’t; so I know that the arguments can be made both ways, and aren’t a shoe-in.)
    ******
    All of that does nothing to change the fact that Hillary is, um, not a juggernaut.

  8. Trump’s baggage and non research is becoming more visible with the debates and time. Fox moderators exposed his way off figures on Medicare savings with charts and Megyn noted the sizable class action suit against his defunct University. He bs-ed fast on both scores. Slowly some venues will hit his early cheating with other men’s wives which he himself stated in an early book and I think he’ll lose part of the followers just on that. Those who watched UFC 196 last night, saw an endlessly loud bragger, Conor McGregor get defeated by the less famous Diaz brother and Holly Holm get similarly rear choked by Misha Tate. Two titans down in one night…surprisingly. Trump could be next. Trump stating yesterday that he would broaden torture laws was a sound bite perfect gift to Hillary….after stating Friday that he was reversing and obeying international law and all of this was just one more surreal moment this week.

  9. Why do you support Republucan Candidates, when they have used Abortion as a political tool, to convince you to stop being Christian. Providing, medical care and EDUCATION to both men and women prevents more unwanted pregnancies, then abortion ends?

  10. “Providing, medical care and EDUCATION to both men and women prevents more unwanted pregnancies, then abortion ends?”

    Complete and utter rubbish. Explain why wealth women have abortions. While you are at it explain why the movement to decriminalize abortion occurred at the same time as the creation of the welfare state.

  11. Romney on FOX Sunday would not rule out accepting being drafted at the July convention. He’s honed too his response to having accepted Trump’s endorsement: ” “Sixty-one million people voted for me,” Romney said. “I don’t think all 61 million should be president of the United States.” No one is hitting Romney with the truly hardball question: why did he say at that 2012 endorsement that Trump was more successful than he, Romney, and now he is saying Trump is not successful at all. That was only four years ago.

  12. “Only Trump has the broad appeal to beat Hillary.”

    Then why in CNN nationwide poll Hilary beats Trump by 8% while she losses to Cruz by 8%?

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