Clinton Bounce Fades

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Hillary and Donald


I have been amused at the focus of the media on polls, since polls prior to Labor Day tend not to mean much.  Americans simply do not tend to focus on a Presidential election until we get to September, and often not until late September or early October.  However, polls are useful now for their direction rather than their topline numbers.  After the Republican and Democrat conventions both Trump and Clinton got bounces, Clinton having a bit more of a bounce which is typical usually for Democrats.  Thus we have had rafts of stories making predictions based on these bounces, most of them written by either highly partisan, almost always in a Democrat direction, or highly ignorant reporters.  Looking at the most recent polls we see Rasmussen showing a three point race, Reuters showing a 5 point race and Bloomberg showing a 4 point race.  (I am using the polls with the Libertarians and Greens included, since they are on almost all state ballots.)  The Los Angeles Times tracker poll which has consistently shown a much closer race than any other poll, had it on Thursday as a one point race.

Where does the race currently stand?  Based on the most recent polls I would say Clinton is ahead between three to four points.  However, most Republican and Democrat strategists agree that there may well be a hidden Trump vote worth a few points to him.  The bottom line is that these are the two most unpopular nominees I have seen together in a race in my lifetime.  The number of voters who are truly undecided, or who switch back and forth almost daily, are more than enough to play a decisive role.

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