State of the Race: Revenge of the Deplorables: Trump Takes the Lead

Share on facebook
Facebook 0
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn 0
Share on reddit
Reddit 0
Share on delicious
Delicious
Share on digg
Digg
Share on stumbleupon
StumbleUpon 0
Share on whatsapp
WhatsApp
Share on email
Email
Share on print
Print

 

 

Trump had the momentum even before Hillary’s ghastly exercise in political malpractice of the past week, but now he is clearly in the lead.  The Los Angeles Times daily tracking poll, which seems to be an accurate barometer of where the race is heading this campaign, has Trump today out to a five point lead.  Go here to look at it.  The Bloomberg Politics Poll, go here to view it, shows Trump with a five point lead in Ohio, the Buckeye state often mirroring the national race.  Perhaps most significantly, a just-released Reuters Ipsos poll, go here to read a story on the Colorado race, gives Trump a two point lead in a state that was thought to be irrevocably lost to Hillary.  Trump is beginning to expand the Romney map.  For example, if he takes the Romney states from 2012, and takes Ohio, Florida Iowa, Nevada and Colorado, he is the President even if he loses Virginia.  Current polls show him ahead in all of these states with the exception of Nevada where Hillary clings to a one point lead in the latest poll.  However, in that scenario Trump  leads in Maine 2 in current polling and if Hillary took Nevada and Trump got the one electoral vote in Maine 2, the race would be tied 269-269 with  the race decided, almost certainly in Trump’s favor, by majority vote by state delegations in the House of Representatives.  Trump is expanding his electoral college reach while Clinton’s is contracting.

Hillary Clinton has been cordially despised by many in her party for a very long time.  Leftists have never warmed to her, and many Democrats view her as simply dishonest.  If she begins to look like a sure loser, more Democrats will vote Green, Libertarian or stay home.  There would be an effort to replace her on the ticket.  Unless she dies, a possibility that in view of her health which cannot be discounted, she will never voluntarily leave the ticket.  Forcing her off the ticket would probably only enhance the disaster for the Democrats.

Trump of course is not popular, to say the least, among Republicans.  His paid leave plan for new parents illustrates again that he is neither a Republican nor a conservative.  However, as he increasingly looks like a winner, more Republicans and conservatives will come to his side, enjoying the crushing of Clinton and hoping to benefit in down-ballot races.

Is the race over?  Of course not.  I expect it to be a wild ride to the end.  However Trump has demonstrated that he is a formidable candidate in this change year, and Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she is the most inept candidate fielded by a major party since Dukakis who blew an 18 point lead in 1988.

More to explorer

16 Comments

  1. Hillary regrets that she said half of Trump supporters are deplorable.
    I interpret that to mean that she intended to say ALL of Trump’s supporters are deplorable.
    Does anyone have evidence to refute this interpretation?

  2. Just saw a report President Trump is ahead 5% in “battleground” (a great movie BTW) state Ohio.
    .
    Keep deplorable my friends.
    .
    But, don’t even think about Te Deums and Non Nobis Domines. Don’t underestimate the power of 50 million idiots and a corrupt regime.

  3. Given Trump’s long list of liberal positions on issues (Add “global warming” to the list.), it is as I said since his presumptive nomination, the Democrats win no matter who takes office this cycle. Trump is poison in the conservative well. Don’t be surprised if he keeps moving left, which is why I can’t trust him to come through on the issues where he agrees with the right. “But he’s not Hillary!” I would rather a well identifiable enemy. The greatest danger wouldn’t be the enemy, but the lap dog GOP in Congress, who I hear is more conservative than ever. Mmm… no.

  4. “I would rather a well identifiable enemy.”

    That served us so well with Obama. I want Hillary crushed.

    “the Democrats win no matter who takes office this cycle.”

    Untrue. They will view a loss to Trump as a shattering defeat.

    “Don’t be surprised if he keeps moving left,”

    Perhaps, although I also would not be surprised if he does not. In any case the Democrats have demonized him to such an extent that he can expect little help from them in Congress, especially if the Republicans continue to control both houses. Predicting what Trump will do is probably a fool’s game however since I think Trump often does not know what his next move will be from day to day.

  5. The Big Win with Trump is that he gets to name Supreme Court judges.

    With Republicans at least in charge of the House his ability to do serious liberal damage should be minimized. And, as a business guy, I expect he would do a few good things for the economy.

    Hillary on the other hand? Well, let’s not think about that. Too horrible to contemplate.

  6. That served us so well with Obama.
    Thanks to a GOP congress someone claimed is more conservative than ever. Where is the conservatism? If the GOP grew a spine, there would be less need to worry about who is in the White House. The legislative branch is useless and weak… by choice! Executive and judicial branches are running the show.
    And I don’t want to leave the people out of this. They bear culpability. If they want to vote their demise, how am I, as a conservative with no party, able to stop them?
    * “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.”
    * “Every nation gets the government it deserves.”
    They will view a loss to Trump as a shattering defeat.
    They say that publicly, but Dems on the street secretly are okay if he wins and IF he continues walking down the liberal path. I really can’t tell the difference between Trump and traditional Democrat.
    With Republicans at least in charge of the House his ability to do serious liberal damage should be minimized
    If the House is afraid of Obama, do you think they’ll stop a Hillary or Trump? Obama was easy pickings for standing up for the people and smaller, more responsible government. GOP wets their pants every time Obama talks. It’s sad.

  7. His paid leave plan for new parents illustrates again that he is neither a Republican nor a conservative.

    Nelson Rockefeller was a Republican. Trump was a registered Republican in New York from 1969 to 1985 and then on and off since.

    Trump is not a ‘conservative’ if that term is meant to communicate something about notions of public policy. Trump likely has no coherent views on public policy, just improvisations. You don’t need coherent views to run a real estate business. You need the zoning board and the building and fire inspectors off your back, as well as the housing court. Addison Mitchell McConnell’s imperatives are to provide a facility for Capitol Hill hacks to play games (‘regular order’) and toss candy at the Chamber of Commerce (the ExIm Bank). Paul Ryan’s appear to be to avoid newspaper stories blaming the Republican caucus for some tangle they’ve been in with the President, by means analogous to those used by burnt-out cops tired of taking flak from politicians for doing their jobs. Can’t get cited for police brutality if you’re just eating doughnuts at the counter and you can’t be cited for ‘obstructionism’ if you just cave in.

    Ted Cruz has been married for about 15 years to a head-turner who certainly had other options. He’s managed to hold down demanding (and sometimes lucrative) employments. He’s on congenial terms with family members who are very unlike him. He managed to get his divorced parents in the same room to make ads for him. His former employers are not bad-mouthing him to the media; neither are quondam employees. The people who despise him are his college roommate (an arrested development case employed as a television writer in Hollywood) and…Capitol Hill insiders. He is certainly unclubbable, but there’s no indication he’s deficient in social skills.

    If there was any doubt a critical mass of the congressional Republican caucus were scamming the base, the last two years should have removed it. Trump is likely also a scammer. He has one small advantage: he is willing to tell the poseur/scolds in our public life to get stuffed.

  8. A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.”

    The ratio of public spending to domestic product was largely unchanged – bouncing around a set point – from 1974 to 2009. The source of secular increases in welfare spending would be the dysfunctions of the market for medical services and the escalating penetration of higher education into the sorting of the labor market (which has not prevented state legislatures from reducing allocations of general revenue to state institutions). The cash dole programs which have seen secular increases in contextual significance have been SSI and Social Security Disability. If you fancy that’s driven by a large mass of people ‘voting themselves benefits’, I’m going to suggest you show your work. And you won’t be able to.

  9. No doubt some Republicans will hate the child care program. Trump cares not. Look where he gave his speech Tuesday…the formerly Rockefeller Republican Philadelphia suburbs. Until 1992, the Philly burbs handed Pennsylvania to the GOP. Clinton flipped ’em. Wanna win Pennsylvania? Win ’em back. The counties around Pittsburgh used to be reliable Democrat, but being coal miners, natural gas workers and bitter lingers, they are Dems no more…but the population is less than in 1988.

  10. The ratio of public spending to domestic product was largely unchanged – bouncing around a set point – from 1974 to 2009.

    Does American history begin in 1974? Odd date to pull out of the air.
    .
    I’m going to suggest you show your work.
    Ok. http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/include/usgs_chartSp03t.png
    .
    Although spending dropped back to 21 percent of GDP immediately after WWII, it steadily climbed thereafter until it hit a peak of 35 percent of GDP in the bottom of the recession of 1980-82. Thereafter government spending chugged along in the mid 30s until the mortgage meltdown of 2008. In the aftermath of bank and auto bailouts, government spending surged to wartime levels at 41 percent of GDP.
    .
    The source of secular increases in welfare spending would be the dysfunctions of the market for medical services and the escalating penetration of higher education into the sorting of the labor market
    And a major contributing source of those dysfunctions? Government funding. How is government funding entering the market? The people are voting politicians in to given them what they want. As fed increase funding, the market is tied to more strings and subservient to its master. The major players don’t mind. They profit nicely.
    .
    It’s all summarized here. 🙂 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

  11. Until 1992, the Philly burbs handed Pennsylvania to the GOP. Clinton flipped ’em.

    The Republicans won Pa in presidential elections in 1932, 1948, 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988. That’s eight of 16 contests. In four of those eight contests, the Republicans carried Pennsylvania in a year when Republicans carried north of 40 states. Pennsylvania has voted with New York in 14 of the last 16 contests.

  12. Always have to argue, don’t you, Art? You can make numbers say whatever you want and you do that to pick arguments. From 1972 through 1988, the GOP lost Pennsylvania ONCE in the presidential election, (four of five) and not at all since 1988, a stretch of six elections. I think Dubya hight have actually won in 2000 and 2004 except for City of Philadelphia voter fraud.

    The GOP controls both houses of the Legislature and will likely take back the Attorney General and the Governor’s Mansion in 2018.

    Put Philly and its burbs in New Jersey and Pennsylvania would be as red as a state can get.

  13. And a major contributing source of those dysfunctions? Government funding. How is government funding entering the market? The people are voting politicians in to given them what they want. As fed increase funding, the market is tied to more strings and subservient to its master. The major players don’t mind. They profit nicely.

    That’s an aspect of it, but it is not popular pressure which is inducing the secular increase in expenditures. What popular opinion does is inhibit politicians from repairing the problem if they have any idea how. Back issues of The Public Interest have articles on this issue. Lobbies tend to form to protect extant benefits, not to acquire new benefits. Also, lobbies often reflect guild interests (e.g. social workers), not popular interests. (While we’re at it, veterinary expenditures have increased at rates similar to that of medical expenditures, with no public subsidy at all).

    Does American history begin in 1974? Odd date to pull out of the air.

    No, it’s is not. There was a secular increase in the relative dimensions of public expenditure. It ran its course between 1929 and 1974. The biggest driver between 1940 and 1956 was military expenditure, but that’s not people ‘voting themselves benefits’. You have welfare programs which dissipate as well as those which advance. An example would be the Depression-era public employment agencies, which were all dismantled by 1943. Another example would be the Office of Economic Opportunity, which disappeared in 1981.

    And, again, the expansion of SSI / Disability has been largely sub rosa, the work of lawyers interacting with hearing examiners. The one attempt (passed by a Democratic congress) to rein the Disability program in was short-circuited by the media stirring up trouble (by hunting down sob stories and putting them on television). Was there a popular movement to expand Medicaid over the years? No, it was an elite driven project of which Henry Waxman was the principal instigator. Was there a popular revolt when AFDC was replaced with TANF (a program with 1/3 the census of its predecessor)? No. If that reform is gutted, it will be by politicians and officials responding to guild lobbies, not due to public pressure.

  14. 1972 through 1988, the GOP lost Pennsylvania ONCE in the presidential election, (four of five) and not at all since 1988, a stretch of six elections.

    What you’re neglecting is that they took New York in those elections (bar one) as we well. Pennsylvania voted Republican in those years the Democrats suffered a generalized collapse. They were 2 for 11 (1932 and 1988) when the Democrats did not. Neither party has suffered a general collapse since 1984.
    ==
    I doubt Trump’s aiming for the Rockefeller Republicans because they hardly exist anymore as a distinct segment of the electorate, and there haven’t been any in Congress the last 10 years. There’s a bloc of self-identified Republicans who vote for the Democratic presidential candidate. The share is pretty stable (about 9% of all soi-disant Republicans). I doubt he’ll pry many of them loose.

Comments are closed.