Trump had the momentum even before Hillary’s ghastly exercise in political malpractice of the past week, but now he is clearly in the lead. The Los Angeles Times daily tracking poll, which seems to be an accurate barometer of where the race is heading this campaign, has Trump today out to a five point lead. Go here to look at it. The Bloomberg Politics Poll, go here to view it, shows Trump with a five point lead in Ohio, the Buckeye state often mirroring the national race. Perhaps most significantly, a just-released Reuters Ipsos poll, go here to read a story on the Colorado race, gives Trump a two point lead in a state that was thought to be irrevocably lost to Hillary. Trump is beginning to expand the Romney map. For example, if he takes the Romney states from 2012, and takes Ohio, Florida Iowa, Nevada and Colorado, he is the President even if he loses Virginia. Current polls show him ahead in all of these states with the exception of Nevada where Hillary clings to a one point lead in the latest poll. However, in that scenario Trump leads in Maine 2 in current polling and if Hillary took Nevada and Trump got the one electoral vote in Maine 2, the race would be tied 269-269 with the race decided, almost certainly in Trump’s favor, by majority vote by state delegations in the House of Representatives. Trump is expanding his electoral college reach while Clinton’s is contracting.
Hillary Clinton has been cordially despised by many in her party for a very long time. Leftists have never warmed to her, and many Democrats view her as simply dishonest. If she begins to look like a sure loser, more Democrats will vote Green, Libertarian or stay home. There would be an effort to replace her on the ticket. Unless she dies, a possibility that in view of her health which cannot be discounted, she will never voluntarily leave the ticket. Forcing her off the ticket would probably only enhance the disaster for the Democrats.
Trump of course is not popular, to say the least, among Republicans. His paid leave plan for new parents illustrates again that he is neither a Republican nor a conservative. However, as he increasingly looks like a winner, more Republicans and conservatives will come to his side, enjoying the crushing of Clinton and hoping to benefit in down-ballot races.
Is the race over? Of course not. I expect it to be a wild ride to the end. However Trump has demonstrated that he is a formidable candidate in this change year, and Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she is the most inept candidate fielded by a major party since Dukakis who blew an 18 point lead in 1988.