Moore v. Jones: A Pre-Mortem

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Well, the Roy Moore v. Doug Jones race will be mercifully over tomorrow, and all current polls show Moore ahead.  Nothing is ever certain in politics, but it looks like Moore is headed to victory.  A few observations:


  1.  Alabama is a very red state.  In the divided state of our politics today, it is almost as hard for a Democrat to win a state-wide race in Alabama as it is for a Republican to win a state-wide race in California.
  2. If the scandal card is played, do it close to the election.  Moore had enough time to recover from the scandal allegations, and he did.
  3. The national news media is really, really hated by conservatives.  Moore has received somewhat worse coverage from the media than a reincarnated Hitler would, and that fact probably redounds to his advantage in Alabama.
  4. Gloria Allred.  If you are trying to win an election in a red state, having Gloria Allred do one of her dog and pony press conferences is death on ice for the candidate she supports.
  5. Beware of evidence too good to be true.  The whole scandal began to unravel with the yearbook.  Evidence too good to be true, is usually too good to be true.
  6. The impotence of the Never Trumpers.  Organized Never Trumpers have waged a proxy fight against Roy Moore as part of their ongoing war against Trump, which is beyond peculiar since Moore was not Trump’s first pick.  At any rate it demonstrates that the Never Trumpers are a group of chiefs without Indians.
  7. God bless Al Franken and John Conyers.  The antics of Democrats in Congress took the heat, and some of the media, off Roy Moore.  The Democrats think they have turned the corner on this.  I wouldn’t bet on it.  Republicans when they behave like pigs around women are hypocrites.  Democrats when they do so could fairly state, if they were honest, that they were merely emulating some of the most respected members of their party, including Bill Clinton, John F. Kennedy andTed Kennedy.  More to come on both sides of the aisle, but I bet much more to come from the Democrats, who haven’t held up fidelity in marriage as an ideal since Truman.
  8. The Republican establishment is really, really hated by the base of the party.  Roy Moore has been a huge kidney stone for decades for the Alabama GOP and this fact has greatly aided his political career.
  9. Your money is no good here.  Since the scandal card was played against Roy Moore, Doug Jones has been awash in cash.  He is outspending Moore seven to one and he completely dominates the airwaves,  The primary effect of all this spending  seems only to have served to make Roy Moore’s voters more eager to vote.
  10. Abortion.  Alabama is a very pro-life state and Jones is in favor of abortion until the umbilical cord is cut.  The abortion issue is the prime reason why Moore’s voters stayed with him immediately after the scandal broke.
  11. Where dah white women?  Note to Democrats.  When you are attempting to play the race card to drive up the black vote, many blacks find it highly offensive when you produce a brain dead flyer that paints a black man eager to be a sexual predator.

Update:  Two final polls out today.  The Emerson College poll shows Moore with a nine point lead and a Fox News poll which shows Jones with a 10 point lead.  Some pollster is going to be wiping egg off their faces after tomorrow.

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  1. Organized Never Trumpers

    The closest thing to that was the Egg McMuffin campaign, and it’s a reasonable guess that any organizational acumen there was supplied by retainers and associates of Mitt Romney. George Will, Wm. Kristol, Erick Erickson, and Patrick Frey do not a movement make. Kristol’s the only one of the four that has ever had more than one person working under him and Frey’s a Dunning-Kruger exemplar.

    The conduct of A.M. McConnell and Paul Ryan during this distasteful episode suggests that these two are idiot-savants – they know how to get elected and politic within legislative caucuses but are innocent of any other skill or basic common sense. Another possibility is that McConnell is the ultimate source of the mudslinging, with the WaPoo acting as cat’s paw.

  2. The Republican establishment is really, really hated by the base of the party.

    Don’t know about that. There is this sense that these people live in a bubble and are unaware of, indifferent to, or contemptuous of perspectives abroad outside of that bubble. See both senators from Arizona.

  3. I’m conflicted about this. Putting aside the allegations of Moore’s sexual misconduct (and Alabama 20 or 30 years ago had a different set of mores–dating a teen-ager–over the legal limit of sixteen–was no big deal), I don’t think he’s a good man. He took a large salary (over 100k) from a charitable foundation but denied it; his defense of the 10 Commandments inscription was a publicity stunt. Nevertheless, were I an Alabama voter I would vote for him, against the pro-abortion Jones, and swallow my misgivings. It’s the same reason I voted for Trump, much as I detest his morals and behavior, rather than have voted for an anti-life Hillary, or have given a vote to her by voting for a third party candidate. So I am a single issue voter and your point 10 is the crucial one.

  4. Art, If Moore believed in the 10 Commandments he wouldn’t lie about his salary from a charitable foundation. In other words, I believe that he was playing to a certain segment of the Alabama voting population. I don’t know what was is Moore’s mind, so I admit that it’s a supposition and quite possibly a prejudice. And I’ll admit I was a Never Trump right up to the point when I entered the voting booth. And I’ll admit that what he has accomplished is on the whole very good, but I still think that he’s not a good person, someone who should be an example for the nation, like Eisenhower or Reagan.

  5. Art, If Moore believed in the 10 Commandments he wouldn’t lie about his salary from a charitable foundation. I
    I’m inclined to be rude about the crudity incorporated into that remark. That aside, the contention he ‘lied’ was incorporated into a Washington Post article which indicates nothing about its sources of information (unless IRS employees are leaking to the WaPoo). It wasn’t the public 990 forms, which the WaPoo insists are defective.
    At this juncture, if you take the WaPoo at face value, I’m vending bridges.

  6. It looks like he was *hired for* a salary that was on par with similar charitable foundations, and his prior paycheck, but that they couldn’t pay.
    Which would mean he didn’t get the salary.

  7. Foxfier, thanks for your explanation. Art, I don’t disbelieve everything from the Washington Post. Now if you had said the NY Times, I would have agreed that nothing from there is trustworthy. In any case, as I said in my comment, pro-life trumps (and there’s no pun intended here) all other issues. If the devil himself were running for Governor of our fair state, and swore to eliminate abortion, I’d vote for him against the present incumbent.

  8. Bob
    Here is report abou the Luther Strange add about Roy Moore’s charity..

    I decided to vote for Roy Moore when I watched this interview.

    I have never seen such a vicious campaign and each day is worse both in quantity and intensity. There is a lot of money coming from out of state to influence this election. I have never seen so many people so vicious in the character assassination of an individual. Although Doug Jones may convince many that he is a moderate, his campaign convinces me that he can be ruthless and goal of his party is to win not to come together in compromise.

    Egalitarian principles such as rules of evidence, innocence until proven guilty, the chance to see evidence and face accusers no longer seems to matter and it is respect for the rule of law that allows our nation to thrive. What is happening in Alabama should be an alarming as this may become the national norm, and if so we will have lost part of our humanity.

  9. I’m very sad. It looks like Jones has won. (10:39 pm EST) I realize the campaign against Moore was dirty, based on unfounded accusations, Although he would not have been my first choice for a Republican candidate. it’s a real disaster for the country that a pro-abortion Democrat has been elected as senator…Well, Jones’ term will only be for two more years, and hopefully he will be voted out of office then.

  10. An endorsement from Mr Trump would appear to be the kiss of death. He backed Ed Gillespie for the governership of Virginia, he backed Luther Strange against Roy Moore in the primary and then he backed Mr Moore.

    No doubt, donors will take note.

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