Friday, March 29, AD 2024 7:07am

Red Wave Rising?

We are a week out from the election.  What do I see in my cracked crystal ball?  Perhaps a red wave.

The Senate races seem to be trending the way of the GOP with most prognosticators seeing at least a three seat gain.

The House is jump ball right now, with control coming down to the outcome in five or less races.  The Republicans appearing to be waxing in strength the closer we come to the election.  In states where they keep track of party registration at the polls, Republican numbers are up markedly for a midterm  in early voting, with the Republicans in many areas exceeding Democrat numbers in early voting, and early voting has tended in the past to be an area where the Democrats dominate, with most Republicans waiting until election day to vote.

Democrat activists are attempting to make political hay out of the male stripper, no joke, bomber and the murders of the vile anti-Semite Robert Bowers.  I think this is a mistake for two reasons.  Only a true frenzied partisan, Mark Shea that is your cue, could attempt to blame Trump for these criminal actions, and most normal people will reject with contempt such insinuations and the obvious attempt to make political capital out of tragedy and near tragedy.  Second, in times of internal disturbances the American people tend to rally around the President as the symbol of law and order. The rallying effect is often short term, but the election is nearly upon us.

Once again I think the polls may be understating Republican strength.  First, because the vilification that Trump has undergone by the mainstream media, unprecedented in my lifetime, doubtless has encouraged many of his supporters to adopt a low profile and to refuse to answer polls.  A recent generic ballot poll noted that 8% of respondents refused to state their party affiliation and  that demographically they looked like Republicans.  Second, the two parties are unlike when it comes to geography.  Democrat strength tends to be in urban enclaves while Republicans tend to be more spread out outside of those enclaves.  An increase in turnout at the polls in icy blue New York City, for example, tells us little about who will control Congress.  In battleground Congressional races the Republican generic numbers are on par with the Democrat generic numbers.

It should make for an interesting night next week, and as always TAC will be giving election night coverage and commentary.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
22 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Bob Kurland, Ph.D.
Admin
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 5:33am

From your lips to God’s ears.

Phillip
Phillip
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 5:58am

“Only a true frenzied partisan, Mark Shea that is your cue, could attempt to blame Trump for these criminal actions…”

I don’t go to Mark’s site anymore. Has he said such?

Philip Nachazel
Philip Nachazel
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 7:23am

I’m hoping for a Feinstsunami hitting our shores come Tuesday.

(Thanks to Diane and Ms.Ford)

Art Deco
Art Deco
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 7:25am

I suspect the Democrats will take the House, but not with a large plurality. See RCP and Rothenberg / Gonzalez. Everything would have to break their way to take the Senate.

Fun Fact: Should she take the gavel in January, Nancy Pelosi will be 78 years and 10 months of age as she receives it. The oldest recipient on record was Sam Rayburn, who was precisely 79 years of age at the time he commenced his last term as speaker in January 1961. Mr. Rayburn died on 16 November 1961.

You can find in the history of that body a few people who held positions in the House leadership longer than have Pelosi (16 years +) and her sidekick Steny Hoyer (15 years +). Just about all of them retired before they saw their 80th birthday, however. Pelosi sees her 80th birthday in 17 months and Hoyer in 7 months.

Philip Nachazel
Philip Nachazel
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 8:01am

A recap of seismic activity;

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/the-medias-orchestrated-smear-of-brett-kavanaugh

If this history could be brought back to the public square as a refresher I would assume it might help the red wave.

Phillip
Phillip
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 8:06am

“Oh yes, when he is not blaming every conservative ever born:”
He worships the idol of the State. Sad.

Dave Griffey
Dave Griffey
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 9:11am

I’d guess the Democrats take the House and the GOP holds the Senate. I could be wrong. I also guessed Hillary Clinton would win in 2016, so there you go.

As for Mark’s Twitter, I’ve heard horror stories, and from the few examples I’ve seen, they fall short of the truth. He needs someone who matters to him to intervene, but until then I fear he will continue to exemplify all of the things he so loudly condemns in others.

Anzlyne
Anzlyne
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 1:41pm

I had not read him for a long time, but I f followed your links today. OH my! I can just imagine him literally spitting and sputtering as he spews all this out ( about how other people hate). The poor guy thinks he is surrounded by Cults.

Penguins Fan
Penguins Fan
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 2:01pm

My semi worthless opinion is that the GOP will gain Senate seats and hold the House. There will be more Democrat lunacy in the media, on the streets and on college campii. Shea will lose it again.
We will see in a week.
When Ruth Ginsbueg assumes room temperature and Amy Barrett is nominated, the Donkeys will have a meltdown.

Paul Zummo
Admin
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 2:05pm

The irony of course is that the Synagogue shooter sounded more like Mark Shea than Donald Trump, at least in his rhetoric towards Israel.

Art Deco
Art Deco
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 4:13pm

Shea’s hostility towards Israel is one of the few constants in his various political incarnations.

I’d missed that. One of the crew who used to publish the defunct magazine Caelum et Terra (and the blog of the same name) is antic in his loathing of Israel. All the trouble in the world, and he lands on Israel. The fairly sensible chap who was his partner in various publishing ventures tells me it’s completely unreasonable to come to any untoward conclusions about his friend.

Gabriel
Gabriel
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 4:16pm

4 Steps to Victory!

1: Vote
2: Encourage a friend or family member to get out and vote pro-life and pro-family. If you know someone elderly who needs help with voting, help them out. If someone needs a ride to the polls, bring them.
3: Ask you priest or bishop to pray or offer a Mass for pro-life victory these elections.
4: Pray the Rosary

Philip Nachazel
Philip Nachazel
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 4:46pm

Gabriel.

Blessings to you!

One more.
Go to your Pro-life office..find out what polling place doesn’t have a volunteer to be 100′ feet away from the building and hand out a pro-life candidate list.

Yes. I can ask this because I’ll be out there on Tuesday handing out these pamphlets because it might make the difference.
I’m there for the children that will never have a chance to vote, to breathe, to laugh, to stare at the stars.

Peace Gabriel.
I love your name!
🙂

PM
PM
Tuesday, October 30, AD 2018 10:02pm

I look forward to TAC for company on Tuesday night.
May sanity prevail. This year I put out my trusty little ‘vote pro life’ bumper sticker on a board and it has so far survived. It seems that the days of lots of lawn signs are over now from what I have seen locally.

Michael Paterson-Seymour
Michael Paterson-Seymour
Wednesday, October 31, AD 2018 3:38am

Donald R McClarey wrote: “Shea’s hostility towards Israel is one of the few constants in his various political incarnations.”

Absolute anti-Zionism addresses fundamental needs in leftist ideology. Some time ago, Robert Redeker suggests that, post Cold War, the left has replaced “sovietophilia” with “islamophilia,” and that “Palestinians and the contemporary Muslim masses replace the proletariat in the intellectuals’ imagination” as the pure, ideal alternative to Western capitalism. (Le Monde, 11/21/01). In other words, absolute anti-Zionism is post-colonial contrition coupled with a fetishisation of the ‘innocent’ Palestinians, which in turn results from the ideological need to fill the post-Soviet vacuum.

Thus, as Pierre-Andre Taguieff explains, on one side, stands the “cosmopolitan Satan,” the unholy trinity ‘United States/Israel/The West.’ On the other side stands the “dominated and the oppressed.” Hence, the stock references by Christian SJWs, Third-Worldists and Anti-Globalisation activists to “The Great Satan” and “The Little Satan.”

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Wednesday, October 31, AD 2018 6:25am

It appears two global “red waves” swept out of office certain, self-anointed smart kids in Brazil and Germany..

Is Mark who? an anti-Semite? I wouldn’t know. However, the question reminds of 2003 when I read another self-elected smart kid (Andrew Sullivan) blame “traditional Catholic anti-Semitism” for Saint Pope John Paul II’s opposition to W’s invasion of Iraq.

Both’s scribblings are about as cogent as wind chimes in a gale, It’s mostly sound and fury signifying nothing. (I think Shakespeare wrote a line like that.)

Howard
Howard
Thursday, November 1, AD 2018 10:05am

“The House is jump ball right now, with control coming down to the outcome in five or less races.” Given that some Republicans more-or-less caucus with the Democrats, that doesn’t sound much like a red wave to me. Oh, it may swing who gets to be speaker and the chairs of committees, but when it comes to up-or-down votes on key legislation, that sounds like the Democrats will have practical control.

Howard
Howard
Thursday, November 1, AD 2018 10:18am

Fun fact: Sam Rayburn was a graduate of East Texas Normal College. The school has since changed its name but not its way of thinking, and it has not produced anything noteworthy since then. Not that I’m bitter at Keith McFarland for trying to ruin my career, mind you….

Howard
Howard
Thursday, November 1, AD 2018 10:22am

@Penguins Fan — “Shea will lose it again.” Regardless of the outcome of this election, you could take that prediction to the bank.
Here’s another one: “Dreher will use the results to plug THE BENEDICT OPTION.”

Discover more from The American Catholic

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading

Scroll to Top