Tomorrow is election day. I am going to make a prediction that will come true. As in 2004, the exit polls are going to show that the Democrat candidate for President is beating the Republican candidate for President by a very wide margin.
Due to sampling bias, a greater unwillingness of Republican voters to participate in exit polls, and the fact that most media organizations are clearly in the tank for Senator Obama, the exit polls will be proclaiming him the overwhelming victor. Don’t believe it. For a whole host of reasons, there is good reason to doubt the accuracy of most polling this year, and exit polling, based on 2004, may well be the most inaccurate of all. This is a tight election and your vote matters this year just as much as it did in 2004.