Massachusetts Predictions

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Go here to see the last polls on the Senate race in Massachusetts.  The seat that is up has been in the hands of the Kennedy family since 1953, four years before my birth.   The last time the Republicans won a Federal senate race in Massachusetts was in 1972 when I was 15 years old.  Against all the odds Scott Brown has engineered the political upset of this century.  In November he trailed Martha Coakley by 30 points.  He has run a superb campaign and she has run an abysmal one, but the key issue has been his opposition to ObamaCare.  If ObamaCare is  a losing issue in Massachusetts, in what State in the Union can it be a winning issue?  Brown 52;  Coakley 47;  Kennedy 1.  That is my prediction.   What is yours?

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  1. Wow! I think it will be closer than the polls indicate — Brown 52, Coakley 48 — but it actually looks like he’s going to pull this off after all.

    I wonder if a big reason ObamaCare has turned into a losing issue in Mass. rather than a winning one, is the fact that Mass. already has a universal health insurance law (in many respects a model or prototype for ObamaCare) that hasn’t delivered the expected results? In other words, Mass. voters have already seen ObamaCare 1.0 in action and decided they don’t like it?

  2. If ObamaCare is a losing issue in Massachusetts, in what State in the Union can it be a winning issue?

    As Elaine points out, if this were in NY or CA, I think Coakley would still win handily (provided she managed to spell the names of the states correctly). Obamacare really has nothing to offer the voters of Massachusetts other than higher taxes and the opportunity to subsidize other states health insurance. MA voters are already covered, and they’re not actually that happy with it.

  3. John Henry,

    If she could also figure out sports it would help alot. Don’t diss the Sox in Massachusetts.

    Brown 50.5, Coakley 49.5. They’re busing in a lot of people. 😉

  4. heh. And in NY, she’d probably call Jeter a Red Sox fan.

    I suppose it’s my skeptical nature, but I still have to see a Republican taking Kennedy’s seat to believe it.

  5. Doing the happy dance in my living room. I am so happy Coakley will not take the Senate seat she arrogantly believed she was entitled to.

  6. Good work Don.

    I’m sure it was your prediction that nailed the victory for Dan–(oops, sorry 😉 ) Scott Brown in Massachussets.

    What chance Obamacare now?

  7. I am delighted that Scott Brown won, but I am sad to see so many conservative Catholics greeting his election with the same expectations for “hope and change” – and even the same sense that the Messiah has come again – that we saw very recently when a politician of a different stripe took office. This guy disagrees with the Church on many, many issues – most of our social teaching, in fact, including our teaching on abortion. His victory will put a stop to some bad stuff in DC, but I hope he is not the face of our future.

  8. Ron:

    I, like I suspect most of the people delighted with this victory, understand that Brown is far from ideal, but that he was by far the best candidate for the state of Massachusetts. I’d love to see the day when a solid social candidate can win in places like Massachusetts and my state of Maryland, and I do think that we can change the cultural milieu over time to do that. In the meantime, we’ll take what we can get, and tonight we’ve witnessed the possible death knell for a radical agenda.

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