I will be liveblogging the election returns tonight beginning at 6:00 PM Central Standard Time. Pre-election polls indicate this should be a good election for the Republicans, we shall see. The main contest tonight will be in the Senate. If the Republicans take it, President Obama might as well go on a vacation for the rest of his term as far as passing legislation is concerned. Perhaps he will learn how to compromise and work with Republicans in order to craft legislation for the good of the nation. (Ah, a little levity at the beginning of a live blog is always a good thing!) As usual your contributions in the combox will be invaluable. See you tonight!
Then, finally, came the only reference to policy in Udall’s speech. “And by the way, I’m proud to stand with Colorado’s women,” he said, almost as an aside. “I’m proud to stand for reproductive freedom.”
For those of you eager to learn about early election results, this just in from Guam:
“Early results from today’s General Election show incumbent Republican Gov. Eddie Calvo with a large lead over former Democratic Gov. Carl Gutierrez,
With 34 of 58 precincts counted, Calvo and Lt. Gov. Ray Tenorio have 12,677 votes and Gutierrez and running mate Gary Gumataoao have 6,889 votes.
The legislative race is still too close to call, with Democrats holding an 8-7 advantage at this time. Democratic Sen. Frank Aguon Jr., Republican Sen. Tony Ada and Democratic Sen. Dennis Rodriguez are the top vote-getters.
Guam Del. Madeleine Bordallo leads Republican challenger Margaret Metcalfe, with 57.85 percent of the vote.”
Ed Morrissey at Hot Air gives a needed PSA on the limitations of exit polls:
“Exit polling is even more problematic, and we’re likely to get a lot of confusion from them as news organizations comment on early releases. This came to a head in 2004 when early reports from exit polling suggested that John Kerry had moved ahead of George W. Bush on Election Day, only to have Bush win the popular vote and the Electoral College. That caused allegations of voter fraud — maybe the last time Democrats admitted to the possibility — and a lame attempt to block Ohio from filing its Electoral College returns.
That entire exercise ignored the fact that exit polling doesn’t do a good job of predicting outcomes; it exists to explain them. Exit polling data gets collected all day long to find the eventual turnout model for elections, especially in demographics such as age, gender, ethnicity, affiliation, etc. That data only becomes valid when it is fully compiled. Partial data sets for exit polling do not provide predictive outcomes because the turnout models can change significantly during the day, perhaps especially because of early voting. That is exactly what happened in 2004, when media outlets used non-predictive data in predictive ways, and while the data sets were still being compiled.
That isn’t to say that completed exit polls are meaningless. The networks will use the data in part to plug into their election models in order to call races — but that takes place while the results of actual voting are being published, after the polls have closed. We’re not likely to see much of that data, though, except perhaps in a few states where Senate and gubernatorial races are particularly close. Even then, though, the problem of early voting then begins to have an impact. Exit polling takes place by having data collectors stand outside of the precincts and conducting in-person surveys. That will give us a look at the results of Election Day voting, but in some states, half or more of the total vote will have been conducted well before Election Day, and a substantial chunk of that by mail. That may mean that even the complete data sets won’t actually be all that reliable, unless and until follow-up surveys get conducted among early voters after the election.”
Poll Closing Times:
Lots of rumors swirling around. The juiciest is that the Virginia Senate race is going to be close. The last polls predicted a blowout for Democrat Mark Warner. If this rumor is true, and that is a huge if, it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
Polls closing in Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, Kentucky, Georgia and Virginia.
Fox calls Kentucky for Senator Mitch McConnell. Early in the campaign he was thought to be in trouble, but the campaign of his opponent Grimes proved immensely inept.
Republicans keep both the Senate seats in South Carolina. No surprise. Tim Scott becomes the first black elected to the Senate from a former Confederate state since Reconstruction.
Virginia is too close to call which is a bad sign for the Democrats tonight.
Polls closing in West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina.
Fox calls the Senate seat for Capito. The first Republican pickup in the Senate. Five to go for Senate control.
Ohio governor race called for Republican Kasich. No surprise.
Virginia still too close to call. Starting to look like a Republican wave.
Polls closing in Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Michigan and Maine. The Florida panhandle polls close.
New Hampshire Senate race too close to call.
Democrat Wolf wins the statehouse in Pennsylvania.
Tight races in blue states: Connecticut and Maryland governor races too close to call.
Cotton wins over Pryor in Arkansas. The second Senate seat to flip. Two to go.
The Republicans also took the state house in Arkansas.
Brown has lost his challenge to Shaheen. The former Live Free or Die State is becoming an ideological clone of Vermont.
Polls close in New York, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, South Dakota and North Dakota. All polls are now closed in Kansas.
Mike Rounds takes the Senate seat in South Dakota. That is the third Senate pick up for Republicans. Three to go.
Abortion Barbie loses her quixotic quest to become governor of the Lone Star State.
Gillespie clinging to a lead in Virginia. Win or lose, he has produced the shocker race of the night.
The Louisiana Senate race will go to a run off in December. I think that Perdue has won in Georgia and there will be no runoff in the Peach State.
Calling Kansas for Roberts.
Fox is predicting that the GOP will gain about 10 seats in the House.
Scott Walker has won re-election in Wisconsin. A huge victory for conservatives. Walker endured a Gestapo-like investigation by the partisan District Attorney of Milwaukee and won re-election in the teeth of a national effort by Democrats to defeat him. Magnificent.
Calling it for the hog castrating Colonel in Iowa! Joni Ernst makes the sixth Senate flip from Democrat to Republican of the night, and the GOP gains control of the Senate. Take ‘er away ladies:
Well, I have a Class X Felony Trial tomorrow so I better turn in to get some sleep. It is shaping up to be a great night for Republicans. More on the races tomorrow and some thoughts on what it means for the next two years as the Obama presidency enters its last quarter.