Liveblog Election Night 2014

I will be liveblogging the election returns tonight beginning at 6:00 PM Central Standard Time.  Pre-election polls indicate this should be a good election for the Republicans, we shall see.  The main contest tonight will be in the Senate.  If the Republicans take it, President Obama might as well go on a vacation for the rest of his term as far as passing legislation is concerned.  Perhaps he will learn how to compromise and work with Republicans in order to craft legislation for the good of the nation.  (Ah, a little levity at the beginning of a live blog is always a good thing!)  As usual your contributions in the combox will be invaluable.  See you tonight!

4:37 AM-

My predictions:
In the House, the Republicans will gain 15-20 seats. In the Senate the Republicans will gain 7 seats and capture control of the Senate. In Governorships there will be no net change. In legislative seats held the Republicans will equal or exceed their net number high mark reached in 2010.  Although the state legislative races gain little national media attention, they are probably the most important indicator of the strength of the parties going forward.
I think the Republicans will take Democrat Senate seats in Montana, Alaska, South Dakota, Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas, West Virginia and Iowa.  They may well win in North Carolina and New Hampshire.  They have an outside shot in Virginia and New Mexico.  They only need to flip six seats for control.  I do not believe they will lose any seats. 
6:28 AM-
Voted at the Parish Hall in my town.  I had to wait several minutes for an open booth.  That has never happened to me before.
One thing tonight’s election results will tell us is whether the Democrat “War on Women” meme has reached its shelf life.  Democrat Mark Udall, mocked by the media as Mark Uterus, has been running on his support for abortion and nothing else.  Even some of this top supporters have had enough.  AllahPundit at Hot Air brings us this disastrous close to the Udall re-election campaign:

What does it look like when the big A goes full eeyore? And can the Internet handle it? Even I don’t know.

Then, finally, came the only reference to policy in Udall’s speech. “And by the way, I’m proud to stand with Colorado’s women,” he said, almost as an aside. “I’m proud to stand for reproductive freedom.”

An angry voice from the crowd jeered: “That’s not the only thing you stand for! Jesus Christ!”…

Minutes after interrupting the senator’s speech, [Leo Beserra] vented, once again, to the Guardian. “I’m trying to figure out who in the hell decided this was how the campaign was supposed to go.”…

“Who is running the worst campaign? Him. Because fucking abortion is all he talks about. He should not talk about it any more whatsoever. There are so many other issues.”

Referring to the 2012 election strategy, Beserra added: “Two years ago it might have made sense. But didn’t they get an inkling that it wasn’t working [this year]?”

Beserra’s a millionaire who’s given thousands to Colorado Democrats but he’s had all he can stands and can’t stands no more.

 

8:50AM-

For those of you eager to learn about early election results, this just in from Guam:

 

“Early results from today’s General Election show incumbent Republican Gov. Eddie Calvo with a large lead over former Democratic Gov. Carl Gutierrez,

With 34 of 58 precincts counted, Calvo and Lt. Gov. Ray Tenorio have 12,677 votes and Gutierrez and running mate Gary Gumataoao have 6,889 votes.

The legislative race is still too close to call, with Democrats holding an 8-7 advantage at this time. Democratic Sen. Frank Aguon Jr., Republican Sen. Tony Ada and Democratic Sen. Dennis Rodriguez are the top vote-getters.

Guam Del. Madeleine Bordallo leads Republican challenger Margaret Metcalfe, with 57.85 percent of the vote.”

12:15 PM-

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air gives a needed PSA on the limitations of exit polls:

“Exit polling is even more problematic, and we’re likely to get a lot of confusion from them as news organizations comment on early releases. This came to a head in 2004 when early reports from exit polling suggested that John Kerry had moved ahead of George W. Bush on Election Day, only to have Bush win the popular vote and the Electoral College. That caused allegations of voter fraud — maybe the last time Democrats admitted to the possibility — and a lame attempt to block Ohio from filing its Electoral College returns.

That entire exercise ignored the fact that exit polling doesn’t do a good job of predicting outcomes; it exists to explain them. Exit polling data gets collected all day long to find the eventual turnout model for elections, especially in demographics such as age, gender, ethnicity, affiliation, etc. That data only becomes valid when it is fully compiled. Partial data sets for exit polling do not provide predictive outcomes because the turnout models can change significantly during the day, perhaps especially because of early voting. That is exactly what happened in 2004, when media outlets used non-predictive data in predictive ways, and while the data sets were still being compiled.

That isn’t to say that completed exit polls are meaningless. The networks will use the data in part to plug into their election models in order to call races — but that takes place while the results of actual voting are being published, after the polls have closed. We’re not likely to see much of that data, though, except perhaps in a few states where Senate and gubernatorial races are particularly close. Even then, though, the problem of early voting then begins to have an impact. Exit polling takes place by having data collectors stand outside of the precincts and conducting in-person surveys. That will give us a look at the results of Election Day voting, but in some states, half or more of the total vote will have been conducted well before Election Day, and a substantial chunk of that by mail. That may mean that even the complete data sets won’t actually be all that reliable, unless and until follow-up surveys get conducted among early voters after the election.”

4:45 PM-

Poll Closing Times:

Poll Closing Times 2014

 

 

5:47 PM-

Lots of rumors swirling around.  The juiciest is that the Virginia Senate race is going to be close.  The last polls predicted a blowout for Democrat Mark Warner.  If this rumor is true, and that is  a huge if, it will be a very long night for the Democrats.

 

6:00-

Polls closing in Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, Kentucky, Georgia and Virginia.

6:01-PM

Fox calls Kentucky for Senator Mitch McConnell.  Early in the campaign he was thought to be in trouble, but the campaign of his opponent Grimes proved immensely inept.

6:03 PM-

Republicans keep both the Senate seats in South Carolina.  No surprise. Tim Scott becomes the first black elected to the Senate from a former Confederate state since Reconstruction.

6:17 PM-

Virginia is too close to call which is a bad sign for the Democrats tonight.

6:30  PM-

Polls closing in West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina.

Fox calls the Senate seat for Capito.  The first Republican pickup in the Senate.  Five to go for Senate control.

Ohio governor race called for Republican Kasich.  No surprise.

6:33 PM-

Virginia still too close to call.  Starting to look like a Republican wave.

 7:00 PM-

Polls closing in Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware,  Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Michigan and Maine.  The Florida panhandle polls close.

New Hampshire Senate race too close to call.

Democrat Wolf wins the statehouse in Pennsylvania.

7:20 PM-

Tight races in blue states:  Connecticut and Maryland governor races too close to call.

7:30 PM-

Cotton wins over Pryor in Arkansas.  The second Senate seat to flip.  Two to go.

The Republicans also took the state house in Arkansas.

7:44 PM-

Brown has lost his challenge to Shaheen.  The former Live Free or Die State is becoming an ideological clone of Vermont.

8:00 PM-

Polls close in New York, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, South Dakota and North Dakota.  All polls are now closed in Kansas.

Mike Rounds takes the Senate seat in South Dakota.  That is the third Senate pick up for Republicans.  Three to go.

8:03 PM-

Abortion Barbie loses her quixotic quest to become governor of the Lone Star State.

8:08 PM-

Gillespie clinging to a lead in Virginia.  Win or lose, he has produced the shocker race of the night.

8:38 PM-

The Louisiana Senate race will go to a run off in December.  I think that Perdue has won in Georgia and there will be no runoff in the Peach State.

9:12 PM-

Calling Kansas for Roberts.

9:16 PM-

Fox is predicting that the GOP will gain about 10 seats in the House.

9:21 PM-

Scott Walker has won re-election in Wisconsin.  A huge victory for conservatives.  Walker endured a Gestapo-like investigation by the partisan District Attorney of Milwaukee and won re-election in the teeth of a national effort by Democrats to defeat him.  Magnificent.

9:25 PM-

Calling it for the hog castrating Colonel in Iowa!  Joni Ernst makes the sixth Senate flip from Democrat to Republican of the night, and the GOP gains control of the Senate.  Take ‘er away ladies:

Well, I have a Class X Felony Trial tomorrow so I better turn in to get some sleep.  It is shaping up to be a great night for Republicans.  More on the races tomorrow and some thoughts on what it means for the next two years as the Obama presidency enters its last quarter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

More to explorer

29 Comments

  1. “Ho-ka hey! It’s a good day to fight. It’s a good day to die. Stout hearts and brave souls to the front. Weak hearts and cowards to the rear.”
    – Crazy Horse, June 25, 1876

  2. In between commenting here, I encourage everyone to mark the Ace of Spades Decision desk for checking out election results. This project was initiated by Brandon Finnigan. We have hundreds of volunteers inputting election results, enabling Brandon and his team to to evaluate results in real-time, and calling races ahead of AP and the networks. I believe he was the first to call the Cantor race, for example. I’ll personally be helping out with the Michigan results.

    http://dd.aoshq.com/

  3. Our friends at the NY Times have the perfect solution — no more midterms:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/opinion/cancel-the-midterms.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

    Just change Congressmen’s terms to four years and Senator’s to four (or eight) and presidents won’t have to worry about having his agenda knocked off the rails by midterms.

    Of course they can’t imagine a Democrat being elected along with a hostile GOP Congress, nor a Republican President with a majority in Congress.

  4. The midterms are a feature, not a bug. The more difficult it is for the government to “accomplish something,” the better off we are.

  5. I’ll be tuning in tonight with you. And many thanks for that video clip ~ nothing like the Riders of Rohan to get my blood going!

  6. No problem. When you said +7, I was just curious which of the winnable races, you had the Republicans losing.

    I’m going with +9 in the Senate (NC) and +11 net in the House.

  7. Kasich may be no surprise, but it’s a nice win to have. We need to shake off this myth that Republicans can’t win in the Great Lakes states. Colorado is another place that Republicans have to remember that they can win (and wouldn’t two statewide wins in CO be sweet)?

    Tim Scott, also expected, but I’m so glad that Republicans are now on the record as having voted for him.

    I’m guessing Georgia and Louisiana will be inconclusive, and I have no idea what’s going to happen in Kansas.

  8. And speaking of wins that would be nice – come on, Florida, don’t put Charlie Crist back into prominence. There’s just no reason for that kind of thing.

  9. Living in North Carolina, I want Kay Hagan defeated for her support of abortion and homosexual marriage. However, I suspect she will win, but only by a slim margin. Liberal progressives who have fled the results of the failed economic policies of liberal progressivism in the northeast have migrated to Charlotte, Raleigh and Wilmington where they dominate and now vote in those people who are enacting the very policies whose results they fled. I mentioned this to one liberal progressive. He was insulted and hurt. That pleased me no end.

  10. ‘former Live Free or Die State is becoming an ideological clone of Vermont.’
    .
    Also, NH is becoming the second home/retirement playground for Eastern MA-ites. No sales tax.

  11. Ace has lost me for the rest of the night. Even if they turn out to be right about Virginia, they’ve made the call WAY too soon.
    ***
    Think I’ll be looking elsewhere for my election coverage.

  12. Meanwhile, exit polls show Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and Bruce Rauner (R) tied (48-48%). These same polls show Rauner performing very well downstate and in the suburban “collar counties” (which are critical to a GOP statewide win) while Quinn got only 80-81% of the vote in the City of Chicago. I say “only” because 20% non-Democrat votes in the city are a critical threshold indicating a likely GOP victory in a statewide race.

    Still, it’s likely to be a long night — and a long next 4 years regardless of who wins. One sign that may be favorable to Rauner is that a whopping 82% of voters exit polled (by CBS2 Chicago) say they are “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about the economy in Illinois.)

  13. Same here. This was the first time ever that I could not bring myself to vote for either major party gubernatorial candidate because (for reasons that would take all day to explain) I don’t trust either one and honestly can’t say which one is the lesser evil. They’re both pro-abort and pro-gay marriage so those issues are a wash. Literally the ONLY thing Rauner has going for him is that he’s not Pat Quinn.

  14. At least one Chicago station has now called the ILGOV race for Rauner; his lead in suburban Cook County and the collar counties appears to be insurmountable for Quinn at this point.

  15. So far the only major GOP incumbent to lose is Corbett in Pennsylvania, yet Juan Williams is desperately clinging to the “it’s an anti-incumbent” election. Sorry Juan, sell crazy somewhere else.

    With Rauner coming in, just about every close election went the GOP’s way, which sounds like a wave to me.

    BTW, Fox now calling it for Rauner.

  16. Illinois going red – now it looks like Maryland might be going red. Hogan still leading with 90% reporting. Unreal.

    And I didn’t even mention Massachusetts.

    But don’t call it a wave.

  17. Liveblogging? This site’s been dysfunctional for a couple weeks now. We might just see your posts in a day or two.

    It appears pollsters are having terrible trouble with their trade. Something about their sampling frames is way off. The House member from Syracuse was expected to win or lose with a wafer-thin margin (as has been the case the last four federal elections) and was bounced out of office with an 19 point spread. That’s extreme, but you are seeing stories of that ilk all over the country.

    The net effect of that is that Mr. Rothenberg’s median estimate (3 seat gain in the house) has been well surpassed. So far, the Republicans have picked up 11 seats and three dozen contests are as yet undecided.

  18. I love that they are calling the Governor Pat Quinn loss in Illinois, a GOP win in Obama’s home state.

    If Obama continues to govern as he always has he will continue to hand democrats continually greater Congressional losses. The democrats can’t afford to win another Presidency at this rate.

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