The Los Angeles Times daily Presidential Tracking Poll today shows Trump two points in the lead. All other polls show Clinton still ahead but with a closing gap between her and Trump. Remember, in August the horserace numbers tend to be unimportant, but the direction can be significant. The Clinton campaign and the mainstream media have been selling the narrative that Trump is a maniac who is a terrible candidate and this race is over. It clearly isn’t, and they had better come up with a new line of attack because this one has passed its sell by date.
Update:
Nate Silver at 538 is seeing what I am seeing:
A number of these polls show no change. But where there have been shifts, they’ve been toward Trump, particularly in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which now shows a 2-point lead for Trump after having Clinton modestly ahead before, and in Pew Research’s most recent poll, which has Clinton with a 4-point lead as compared with the 9-point lead Pew showed her with before the conventions.
You can, of course, pick apart the individual polls if you like. The USC/Los Angeles Times poll makes some unorthodox methodological choices; I happen to like some of these choices and dislike others, but overall, they produce a poll that’s significantly more Trump-leaning than other pollsters. And I’m not sure anyone should be crowing about Zogby Analytics polls, which have been highly inaccurate historically. But there are ways to adjust for these things, and they don’t obscure the fact that the trend in national polls has mostly been toward Trump.
Go here to read the rest. He is correct that most of the state polls don’t yet show this tightening. However, I have long been a believer that state polls tend to lag behind the national polls but usually ultimately follow them. Why this is, no one knows, and some dispute, including Nate Silver, that this isn’t what happens. However, I have seen too many national races over the past half century where state polls have lagged behind national polls not to believe that this is a fairly common occurrence.
(It ain’t over till the lying Lady coughs….)
Choke;
When over confidence reveals alternative realities that was formally thought impossible.
In my heart, I do hope she wakes up to smell the coffee. I don’t want her soul to suffer hell.
I do want her to loose the election. Not because of her hubris, but because of her disregard for the sanctity of human life. Especially the unborn life in the womb.
A slim chance Trump will usher in great defenders of Life at a Supreme Court level…but Hillary NEVER would.
I hope she chokes come November.
A reality she can’t imagine.
The Hildebeast has none of her husband’s political acumen or his “aw, shucks” ability to make people think he cares about them. She is an incompetent, shrill, annoying, lousy politician.
The LameStream Media will never report on Clinton Cash, but the word is getting out.
Very exciting, to see who will win this epic race to be President of the United States of America!
https://www.poets.org/poetsorg/poem/darkness
We no longer live in a constitutional republic. If we did, Hillary would be getting measured for an orange jump suit.
.
Cells in Federal prison do not come with drapes.
This election is far from over, but the internals of this particular poll are a bit dubious. Trump is only down 16 among Latinos? Not sure about that.
The reason Hillary should be scared is she is generally not hitting 50% in any of these national polls. Even when she was up 10 or 11 she was at 49% or in that neighborhood. I know Johnson is pulling some high numbers, but I think the electorate will generally consolidate behind the two major party candidates. We’ll see higher numbers than usual for the third parties, but not 10-15% or anything in that ballpark. So Trump still has room to start pulling in those who refuse to go towards Hillary.
No matter the result, I just wish this nightmare of an election were over.
”It ain’t over till the lying Lady coughs….”
Good bumper sticker,
Perhaps Hillary’s not too concerned because if the election is in any way
close, she’ll have voter fraud to push her over the finish line. She’s already
demonstrated that she has no qualms doing anything to get what she wants,
since our laws do not apply to her. She’s had 8 years to prep for this race,
she’s outspending Trump 10:1, and the media is firmly in her capacious back
pocket. Trump might ‘win’, but she’s likely going to steal this election from him.
Speaking of buying votes, our Clinton Bagman gov has announced he will defy the VA Supreme Court decision that went against his pardoning 200k convicted felons, and will proceed with the pardons.
I guess it all depends upon how many Democrats switch to Trump as well as how many Republicans stay with him. I believe both trends will be Trump favorable. Plus Trump voters are overall more passionate.
Oh, I am not sold on any particular poll at this time Paul, it is the direction of most polls that I find of interest. Neither Hillary nor Trump have locked down their voting blocs yet. Hillary’s problem is that she is very well-known and not well-liked even by her most die hard partisans. That, and the fact that at any moment new revelations could be issued by hackers that would mortally wound her candidacy. Trump has been portrayed as a maniac and a bigot and he simply is not a conservative. That, under the worst press I can recall, with no advertising by him until this weekend, he is probably only four points behind is astounding. If Trump is able to appear as a reasonable alternative to Hillary he wins, since a plurality of voters seem to want change, something absolutely no one expects from Clinton.
I can appreciate Paul Zummo’s wish.
Stomaching this cycle can cause heartburn to say the least.
Here is an antacid;
Today is the Queenship of Mary. Aug.22nd.
Taking a cue from Mary DeVoe, please just say one Hail Mary today for Our Nation and the November elections. Direct this prayer to Our Queen. She will gather up the 54 day novenas, rosaries and singular Hail Mary’s.
She is Our Queen of Victory.
She will plea for our Nation, so please place this prayer in her hands today.
Thanks in advance.
I am astounded at how multitudes of people are DUPED by the most EGREGIOUS, most pathological, most glib, most INVETRATE filthy LIAR that ever walked the face of any political scene, named HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON! Can they not see how transpicuous all her mendacities are? How can people be so simple minded to swallow all the fetid smelling borborygmas that spew from her filthy pie-hole? I’m here to tell you can not believe ONE SINGLE IOTA of a single thing she says! She lies through her teeth and doesn’t even blink an eye as she “pretends” to “care” about us, while underneath she is a rapacious, grasping, lucrepitous, ravening wolf who is literally SALIVATING for the position of most powerful woman in the world, so she can finish off f___ ing up what Obama didn’t finish in his eight years as a usurper.
Hillary if you are reading this (fat chance), I’m serving notice on you, you orgulous NWO witch, that not all of us are fooled by your filthy lies! Some of us see right through you like a glass window! And witch, YOUR DAYS are FINISHED! The LORD God YHWH will JUDGE YOU, and you will SURELY be cast swiftly down to HELL, along with al your cronies! HELL itself can not open it’s jaws wide enough to receive you, and the stygian fires can not heat themselves HOT ENOUGH to burn out the filthy fetid corruption that goes down the the very core of your soul!
Your judgment is coming Hillary, and it is coming SWIFTLY!! For you, it’s going to be a HOT time in the old town tonight!
Philip,
Thank you. I have passed your thoughts to our priest and right minded at daily Mass and friends and family.
CAM.
Your welcome.
I’m trying to “be right minded.”
?
Mary Queen of Heaven came to Knock Ireland to downtrodden people with the comfort of the reality of the Lamb and heaven. The parish priest had just completed offering 100 consecutive masses for those who had died of hunger and sickness. Fr. Cavanaugh was a young priest just ordained when he had as many as 40 requiems a day.
The people held their faith despite official loss of religious freedom.
The Lamb standing as though slain, Mary, crowned, humble Joseph and the bishop St John the evangelist presented themselves to the natural vision of anyone who passed by, unlike the apparitions that are only visible to certain seers. Heaven is real and Mary is really our Queen.
No matter how Hillary thinks she advances women she cannot see. She has eyes but cannot see. When she visited Mexico City and went to Guadalupe, she famously asked who painted the tilma.
It is for us to hold our faith, no matter who wins politically or how justice and religious freedom is threatened.
Unfortunately the government under Hillary ( ‘”religious beliefs and structural biases have to be changed” ) might not have to officially take away American’s freedom to worship and practice Catholic faith, as more and more people give it up voluntarily.
The polls retracting a little post-Dem convention is not surprising. Convention bounces don’t last forever. Trump’s would have lasted longer if
a) He did talk stupid at the end of the GOP’s.
b) The Dem convention wasn’t right behind the GOP convention.
If Hillary wins, it will be like a Babylonian Captivity of our country, a dreadful punishment not altogether undeserved. Let us pray to be spared. Speaking of the lugubrious, I watched “The Little Foxes” on TCM last evening and what a fascinating morality play it is. I cannot help thinking how Bette Davis would have wished to live to play Hillary. I do not pretend to know the state of her or anyone else’s soul but her public persona is quite bizarre.
By the way, the name of the Hellman play, and the movie the Little Foxes is from the Canticles of Canticles, Chapter 2, verse 15: “Catch us us the little foxes, that destroy the vines: for our vineyard hath flourished.” Worth watching.
The little foxes (little sins that unchecked destroy) are also in the Song of Solomon
Hah- I misread you William. I thought I read chronicles… Not canticle. Sorry. Too tired I guess ?
WP Walsh, Watched most of it last night and taped it. Betty Davis was great. Good casting to play Hillary, although casting a male in drag might be more realistic.
Tonight is They Were Expendable. The star Robert Montgomery was a PT boat ops off in real life WWII. We were stationed in Bataan 3 years and toured Corrigador’s Malinta tunnels which were second only to Roman catacombs for being tomb like.
What a disaster Hillary as Cmdr-in-Chief would be. More social engineering, more treason, more self serving policies at the expense of American blood.