State of the Race



The race for the Democrat nomination for President is gelling faster than I expected.  The weaker Democrat candidates are pulling out rapidly, and the race seems to be Biden, Sanders and Warren.  Biden represents what now  could be called the moderate wing of the Democrat party, which demonstrates how far to the Left the Party has swung.  His problems are that he is too inept a campaigner, too old and looking it and brings too much baggage.  The absurd business of the “whistle blower” informing on Trump’s attempt to get the Ukraine government to look into Joe Biden’s use of influence to stop the Ukraine government from looking into an American business of which his son Hunter, “earning” $50 K a month as an influence peddler, was a key player, may well have been chiefly aimed at Biden rather than Trump.  Dumb old Joe was foolish enough to boast on tape of his threatening the Ukrainian government to fire the prosecutor.   Biden is dead man walking politically and will be gone soon after Iowa and New Hampshire, if he lasts that long.

Between Warren and Sanders.  Almost certainly Warren.  Both are too far Left to win, but I think the big corporate money will rally around Warren.  They would view Warren as a cynical opportunist, not truly believing the socialist pap she is pushing, while Sanders is a true believer.  The Bernie supporters were infuriated when Clinton stole the race from Sanders, and I expect them to be no happier this time.  So, Warren v. Trump.  If Trump could pick his opponent, I think he would choose Warren.  Once again, Trump’s luck in his adversaries seems to be a major factor.

More to explorer


  1. Between Warren and Sanders. Almost certainly Warren. Both are too far Left to win, but I think the big money will rally around Warren.

    The last few times I glanced at his twitter feed (which has been awhile because who needs the stress), it looked like Warren was Shea’s pick of the field. If she gets it we may get a first in a full-throated endorsement from Mark himself. (For those who don’t know, even in 2016 he showed no love for Clinton.)

  2. If this race replicates the experience of the Republican contest four years ago, no candidate polling below 5% a year before the convention will prove competitive, and only a subset of those reaching that threshold. That would suggest that the competitive candidates will be some subset of the following: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, and Booty-gig. Given the choice of a bevy of state governors and a couple of accomplished businessmen (among them a state governor with a history in business), they rally behind this crew. And they might take the presidency anyway. Collectively, we used to be better at this sort of thing.

  3. Man, I was looking forward to a brokered convention breaking down in a deadlock between supporters of the Hillary! (3rd time’s the charm!) and the Michelle Obama. Oh well.

  4. a full-throated endorsement from Mark himself

    That seems appropriate. Mark I assume is too foolish to know that Warren made her pile by representing corporations in bankruptcy. Her most notable feat was aiding Travelers insurance in cheating asbestos litigants.

    Warren played a role at a critical time in what ended up as one of the great coups in legal history, the enforcement of settlement agreements by which Travelers promised a massive settlement fund for asbestos victims, but which Travelers didn’t actually have to pay because a precondition to payment had not been met.

    The precondition was that other insurers give up their claims against Travelers, without receiving any payment from Travelers. If the other insurers were not bound by the settlement, then Travelers did not have to pay the asbestos victims.

    Thus, the asbestos victim fund was held hostage to whether Travelers could strip other insurers of their claims. By the time the case reached the Supreme Court the possibility, if not probabilty, that Travelers would not succeed in this inter-corporate fight — and that it would not have to pay the asbestos victims — was well known.

    Warren was not working to help asbestos victims, except ancillary to Travelers fight against other insurers. Travelers ended up losing the fight with other insurers, which gave Travelers a contractual right not to make payment.

    This outcome, even if unintended, was foreseeable at the time of Warren’s legal representation of Travelers. Warren got paid, Travelers got to keep its settlement money, and the asbestos workers were left out in the cold.

  5. Thanks for the unflattering details of Ms. 1/1024. It’s all about the $ of course. The identification of victims is a funny matter.
    Who suffered the most?
    The legal team or the cancer ridden?

    Looks like squaw took great care to distinguish herself as the most needy.

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