Just to keep track of the nonsense that has wrecked our economy and generally made our politicians run around as if their fool heads were on fire, each day I publish the corona virus total death toll in the US based upon the latest data I can find. A single death is an immense tragedy if you love the person. However, we are not talking about love, but rather public policy, which should always involve a sober analysis of risk and cost. Please recall that in a bad normal flu year our death toll in the US can be as high as 90,000.
Note this will be a total death toll since the beginning of this bad farce, and not a daily toll. As of the beginning of March 27 the death toll is 1301. May the Perpetual Light shine upon them.
It’s time to roll back extreme measures. Rhode Island is pulling over cars with New York license plates at the border, requiring a two week quarantine with contact info if they plan to remain in the state. That measure can stay.
Comment of the week Dave! Take ‘er away Sam!
May the souls of the faithful departed through the Mercy of God rest in peace.
And, we must constantly pray for the tens of millions of survivors who can’t go to Mass and, who, without government largesse, soon won’t be able to pay the rent nor feed their children.
Yes, let’s pray for the departed and for those most susceptible to fatality. I haven’t seen a demographic breakdown, but I gather those most likely to die from covid-19 are the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.
Since March 21 I’ve been doing a spread sheet; two relevant data categories may be of interest: 1) death rate per 1000 US population; 2) disease fatality rate (deaths/confirmed cases, %)
The first has gone up from 0.0008 to 0.0037 (as of this morning);
the second has also gone up from 1.18% to 1.51 % (it seems to be leveling off at that last).
Keep in mind that the fatality rate refers to confirmed cases in the denominator; if there are larger number infected but asymptomatic or not reported, then that number would be smaller since the denominator would be larger.
Looking at other data in the spread sheet we have not yet reached Dr. Fauci’s “inflection point.” The Δ(Δcases) (approximating curvature) is still positive albeit decreasing.
Can we admit that this isn’t a normal flu? Is there some reason that a conservative American Catholic has to share the position that this is a farce? I greatly miss the Blessed Sacrament, but I know that God isn’t limited in the means of grace, and obedience is a virtue. The public policy doesn’t seem obviously wrong.
Pinky, my concern is that we have more or less told the world (and the up and coming generations) that 1) you don’t need to go to church to get close to God after all, and 2) religion is a non-essential.
The current coronavirus cases in the United States are still developing. We are still early in this. Deaths are only going to rise. Looking at fully developed cases, meaning either dead or recovered, we have 1382 deaths/(1382 deaths + 2424 recovered) = 3.6% death rate. The rest of the cases have not had enough time to either recover or die. Of course, a lot of cases have not been reported due to lack of testing. But this also means that some deaths might not be reported as well. Globally, the death rate is around 4.6%. So far, the death rate exceeds that of the Spanish Flu, which was also subject to under-reporting.
3) The way to deal with the unknown is to “shelter in place” and wait for the “all clear.”
3a) Because the Experts know best!
I’m guessing the recovered number is severely underreported in places. Particularly New York. But that’s just a guess.
Bob-
Found another place that’s doing wide spread testing and reporting the numbers– Iceland:
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/
Here’s another one from St. Pat’s that might be relevant for how quickly stuff spreads, although it’s got a volinteer issue on the sampling:
https://www.icelandreview.com/society/icelands-extensive-covid-19-screenings-indicate-virus-is-not-yet-widespread/
PINKY
Can we admit that this isn’t a normal flu?
How about you admit that this isn’t the end of the world and there’s insufficient information to make conclusions beyond “China lied like a rug and made this seem at LEAST three times worse than it should have”?
The more information we get, the less bad it looks.
Right at first, what China admitted was terrifying– they first get a hint that something is wrong early in January, and oh my GOODNESS it’s all over the place and folks are dropping dead.
Then we slowly find out that they’ve been hiding it since at least early November.
Foxfier – Of course China lies. But they don’t lie to make themselves look worse. Of course Italy is incompetent, but not usually so bad that they run out of graves.
All indications are that this flu has a high mortality rate. Probably not the end of the world or one of the Horsemen, but the places that haven’t taken it as seriously have had a lot of deaths. I always take math seriously, especially exponential growth.
“This is deadlier than the flu”
“This is harder to catch (less contagious) than the flu.”
Both of those statements can be true.
“This is no deadlier than the flu”
“This is more contagious (easier to catch) than the flu.”
Both of those statements can also be true.
Which set of statements better reflects the truth? I think the jury is still out on that.
China’s idea of “worse” is not the same as ours.
All indications are that this flu has a high mortality rate.
Other than every case where they’ve tried to get everyone tested, rather than mostly testing those who are already so sick they go to the hospital, or after they died.
Kind of like how more car keys are found under street lights, if that’s where you’re looking for them.
Also for Bob-
Feeding that data addiction:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2020/03/27/covid-19-and-us-mortality-by-i-ratel/
Sorry Foxfier, doesn’t count. He’s not an expert so we can discount his opinion. Only Aspergerish teenage scolds are allowed to present as experts without portfolio. And then only insofar as those opinions serve to advance the. Left.
Foxfier, thanks for feeding my data thirst (?) hunger(?) all look interesting. Tomorrow I will try to post the spreadsheet I’ve been making of US, PA, Montgomery (county), Montour (county), S.Korea (control…) confirmed cases, death rates, Δ(something) and Δ(Δ(something)). The last is what’s interesting it’ll tell whether Dr. Fauci’s inflection point (curvature changing, second derivative going from + to -, i.e. whether the curve is flattening). It appears to have done so for S. Korea, and may doing so for US in the last two days; one more day to see if that’s just a fluctuation. Been taking the data since Mar 21: US, SKorea from the World Map (8 AM), PA from PA Dept of Health (12:15 pm). ….In my Asberger’s frame of mind I’m more comfortable with the numbers than words.
After looking over those graphs, it occurred to me we might actually be living thru the plot of “Miri” from Star Trek.
My son Matt, ABC’s Chief political analyst, is getting beat up for telling the truth about Corvid-19. He said he was shocked by the vicious reaction.
https://www.mediaite.com/news/twitter-antibodies-attack-abcs-matt-dowd-for-yet-another-coronavirus-hot-take-are-you-fcking-high/
No kidding, @Michael? This blog is 1 degree from fame.
What cracks me up is how none of those attacking your boy seem to realize that FOOD is a part of the economy. So you know… shut it all down, and the nation starves.
Pretty sure that would have a higher death toll than the wuflu.
Bob-
I’m always delighted to be an enabler for research! The good thing about numbers is that you can use them to make pictures to visualize changes– if you can trust the guy who is managing the picture making, to make sure it’s not an optical illusion.
Seconding Nate, that’s kinda cool. ^.^
Sorry to hear he’s being twitter-mobbed– drawing flack, over the target, but still.
It’s amazing to me, the number of people convinced this is the worst thing since the Black Death, and we all better do just exactly as we’re told to do or we. will. die.
And don’t you dare say anything to the contrary!