Computer Models and Reality

 

Doctor Birx:

I’m sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I’m going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.

So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.

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7 Comments

  1. Holy flip, someone in authority is actually GETTING A CLUE?!

    Bob-
    This is the important context there:
    So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don’t match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy.

    Italy not only didn’t do social distancing, they had idiots encouraging dangerous behavior.

  2. I’m really hoping the cousin that decided to scream “racist” because folks were avoiding possible infection vectors does NOT get sick. Her daughter doesn’t deserve it, if nothing else, and there probably aren’t very many people dumb enough to give in to her preening scolding anyways.

  3. Speaking of outbreaks and computer models not matching reality…. on Friday I was checking weather forecasts and discovered that a commonly used computer model for predicting thunderstorms (known as High Resolution Rapid Refresh or HRRR) was predicting an apocalyptic massive tornado outbreak in central and northern Illinois for Saturday. I’m not a meteorologist and don’t know the details of how these things work, but this model was showing “significant tornado parameters” that were literally off the charts for the northern 1/2 of IL — way beyond anything seen in, say, Alabama in 2011 (the most recent “superoutbreak”). Well, yesterday came and went and while there were a number of tornado reports in IL and IA, the really destructive tornadoes occurred much farther south in Arkansas and (I think) Kentucky, and nothing even close to the epic outbreak occurred where it had been forecast. Yet another lesson in the limitations of computer models…..

  4. Urban legend re: China. In the old days, when a China bank failed they took the bankers out and shot them.

    The pandemic professionals (who should be lined up against a wall and shot) need to take CA, NJ and NY out of the national stats. They skew the data.

    Re: NYC. As late as 10 March 2020, Mayor (I love Castro) DiBlasio was telling people to go out and party. He didn’t close the one-million pupil public schools until way too late.

    FYI: the typical day, NYC buses, the LIRR, and subways have two to three million tightly-packed riders.

    NYC is the most densely populated city in the USA and it’s run by idiots. So, they blame Trump.

    I live within a mile of the Queens border and several NYC Wuhan Flu hot spots.

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