Just to keep track of the nonsense that has wrecked our economy and generally made our politicians run around as if their fool heads were on fire, each day I publish the corona virus total death toll in the US based upon the latest data I can find. A single death is an immense tragedy if you love the person. However, we are not talking about love, but rather public policy, which should always involve a sober analysis of risk and cost. Please recall that in a bad normal flu year our death toll in the US can be as high as 90,000.
Note: this will be a total death toll since the beginning of this bad farce, and not a daily toll. As of the beginning of April 5 the death toll is 8,454. May the Perpetual Light shine upon them.
As you undoubtedly noticed, my forte is not writing as much as I keep attempting. I am however a numbers guy. For my work I created a model which tracks multiple trends for multiple countries across the globe as well for certain states. One of the numbers you might find of interest is the per capita. USA as of Saturday evening: 0.0009464
The WORST affected nation bounces from Italy to Spain. As of last night Spain: 0.0027075
For this we imploded our economy and shut down all churches?
Not buying it.
One of our dearest illusions is that we exercise near total control of the ways in which we live our lives. We’re presently endeavoring to maintain that illusion by deluding ourselves into believing we can control a virus by allowing ourselves to be controlled by people who can no more control the course if a pandemic than King Cnut could turn back the tide.
“Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen.”
Consider this pause as having an effect.
What would be the pivotal numbers for most people? Is there a death toll below which we’d all agree that the lockdown was unnecessary, or a number above which we’d all say that in retrospect is was a wise decision? I think, as a policy issue, the death toll is the wrong number to be looking at, but of course with most policy issues the number you’re really interested in is unmeasurable. In this case, I’d say it’s the estimated number of lives saved by the policy. Thoughts?
In this case, I’d say it’s the estimated number of lives saved by the policy. Thoughts?
That number is unknowable and I, for one, am currently skeptical of any numbers dreamed up by the guys and gals wearing lab coats.
Don and Pinky, granted “that number is unknowable,” one can get an idea of what might have happened with minimal economic consequences, if the same good policy had been followed as in S. Korea, where SELECTIVE quarantine was enforced (no universal shutdowns): death rate (per capita) S. Korea 1/6 that of the US (and we’re early days compared to S.Korea); recovery ratio, recovered/dead, 20 times that of the US. See here for a personal description of what was done in S. Korea:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/an_eyewitness_perspective_on_how_south_korea_tackled_the_covid19_virus.html
Granted that there are cultural differences and the population is ethnically homogeneous in S. Korea, so possibly we couldn’t have enforced voluntary selective quarantines here. They also had extensive testing. I wonder why it could be done there and not here.
What’s the ratio of jobs lost to corona virus cases? That ought to be an acceptable proxy as to whom the virus is making sicker.
Ernst, I don’t have a number for that (for which you should be grateful), but I’d bet without searching for data that it would be much greater for the US than for S. Korea.
selective instead of blanket quarantines
After 3 consecutive demographic cohorts being educated in the egalitarian tyranny of I HOPE YOU BROUGHT ENOUGH BUBBLE GUM FOR EVERYONE!?
Ha
Ha ha
Ha ha ha
Haha haha haha haha
Okay I’m better now.
We will never know that number . . .
Ergo, we will keep economic activity at near zero and destroy the economy, health care, infrastructure, the nation.
Sure sounds to me as if China won Biological World War I.
Of course, they blame Trump. THEY = the CCP’s globalist enablers, including academia, the Biden graft family, the Bush dynasty, the Clintons, Tim Cook, Bill Gates, Hollywood, Steve Jobs (RIP), the Manchurian media, Nike, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, et al.
I imagine that within 2 weeks subsequent to the “peak” there will be so much popular demand to get back to normal life that the “all clear” will be sounded. And, 3 weeks after that, we’ll all start riding the curve back up towards a secondary peak, after which we’ll all be “locked down” a second time. Because if we don’t lock down a second time, the present lockdown will be revealed for the colossal blunder that it is.