May 21, 2020: US Death Toll

Just to keep track of the nonsense that has wrecked our economy and generally made our politicians run around as if their fool heads were on fire, each day I publish the corona virus total death toll in the US based upon the latest data I can find.  A single death is an immense tragedy if you love the person.  However, we are not talking about love, but rather public policy, which should always involve a sober analysis of risk and cost.  Please recall that in a bad normal flu year our death toll in the US can be as high as 90,000.

 

Note:  this will be a total death toll since the beginning of this bad farce, and not a daily toll.  As of the beginning of May 21 the claimed, as suspect as that claim is, death toll is 94,936.  May the Perpetual Light shine upon them.  The death toll yesterday was 1461.  That is down 300 deaths from last week at this time.

 

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13 Comments

  1. Oh, good grief.
    When I hit the World of Meters page, I saw they had a calculation of the fatality rate…where they took the antibody rate found in samples, applied it across all of New York (iffy, but acceptable) and then took all excess mortality and assumed it was from kung flu infections. Because the “confirmed” (which includes all deaths with evidence of respiratory distress) plus “probable” (nobody has officially said they had respiratory symptoms yet) was not big enough. -.-

    Oh, yes, that’s totally rational when you’ve made massive changes to basic treatment, which included a DNR and so far as I know still includes not taking those who can’t be revived on site to the hospital, not to mention the whole massive change of A FREAKING LOCKDOWN.

    They got 1.2%.
    Stick to “confirmed” deaths (which, again, include anybody who had evidence of respiratory symptoms) and you’ve got half the deaths, so .6% fatality rate, with a virgin soil outbreak and pumping the infected into nursing homes.

  2. “We are down 600 in daily death totals, on average, from two weeks ago.”

    Of course. It’s inevitable. People who get it and are “likely to die” can ONLY die once.

  3. “People who get it and are “likely to die” can ONLY die once.”

    I expect that they’ll find ways to get around this in their statistics.

  4. “People who get it and are “likely to die” can ONLY die once.”

    But only a small percentage of at-risk people have been exposed. If we go with a 25% level of exposure, which is higher than the sample testing indicates, and herd immunity at 75% exposure, which probably is a little low, only 1/3 of those in risk groups have been exposed yet. Cuomo’s done everything he can think of to expose the elderly, but he’s only one man. I hope we’ll be getting better at treating people, and find a vaccine soon, but still there’s every reason to believe the death count will keep growing. Less like a major battle, more like insurgent strikes.

  5. We’ll never achieve herd immunity by keeping everyone locked up.

    The only way out is through.

  6. JFK – We’re in agreement about the timeline of a vaccine, this side of stupendous luck or divine intervention.

  7. Pinky, My wife has instructed me to let you know that she agrees with you and is also concerned about an uptick in the exposure and infection rate. She’s been steadily reviewing the statistics coming out of the Ohio prison population. She expects to know which way it will go in the next 10 days or so. Of course, we’ve disagreed on the correct course of action by the State since the beginning. She more or less liked the decisions of Governor Mike DeWine, not so much now, but I have always criticized the Little Dictator’s “orders” as unconstitutional.

  8. I haven’t paid attention to the actions of the individual states. I’ve been happy that we’ve been so federalist throughout the crisis. I’m generally content with the measures we’ve taken, both at the governmental and personal levels, and I’m happy to see some pushback against the State.

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