Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 11:32am

Is It Over?

Statistics are the triumph of the quantitative method, and the quantitative method is the victory of sterility and death.”  Hillaire Belloc
A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”  Joseph Stalin
INTRODUCTION

Green is the color of my Pennsylvania county and those surrounding it.  I drive through our local downtown (an area of a square mile or so) and lots of people are unmasked.  It’s a sunny day, some stores are open, restaurants are offering sidewalk meals (and some inside).  Has the Wuhan-flu (covid-19) wreaked its all?    I’m not sure.

I’ve been collecting statistics since the end of March for some 75 days for the US, my state, Pennsylvania, and my county.   I’m well aware that these statistics are flawed, very possibly inflated.   Nevertheless, they do give insight into trends:  increase, decrease, leveling off.    They can be used for comparison (see my post on the two Pennsylvanias of covid-19).

In what follows I’ll present the collected statistics graphically and let people draw their own conclusions.

THE NUMBERS, GRAPHICALLY

Let’s consider first the difference between the US and Spain.   Spain was very hard hit by covid-19 but now seems to be in a recovery period.


As noted in the caption, the graphs have been roughly adjusted to account for relative populations (US: 331 million, Spain: 47 million) so that a more “per capita” account is displayed.

If we go to daily US death rates attributed to covid-19, we can use a 7-day rolling average to smooth out fluctuations and get more insight into trends.


The seven day moving (“rolling”) average smooths out fluctuations. A big spike in the unsmoothed data occurred around April 19th when the CDC called for new standards for “likely” deaths due to covid-19. Which is to say, deaths where covid-19 might not have been the proximate cause.

The mortality statistics from my own state, Pennsylvania, show a similar behavior.  The data have been smoothed by taking a seven day moving average.

The total number of deaths attributed to covid-19 in Pennsylvania is, as of June 13th, 6211. The total number of deaths attributed to drug overdose in Pennsylvania was 4415 in 2019

The total number of deaths attributed to covid-19 in the US is, as of June 13th, 114,875.   The total number of deaths attributed to drug overdose in the US was about 68,000 in 2019.

 

One more set of numbers:   the number of  covid-19 cases in my home county, a rural sparsely populated area.  We went “green” June 6th.   Note that this is the TOTAL number of cases, not daily cases.  Note also the sharp jump around April 19th and the increase around the 10th of June.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I’ve drawn my own conclusions, tentative answers to the question posed in the title, but I won’t state them here.  I’ll be interested in what you readers might think.

 

 

 

 

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DJH
DJH
Saturday, June 13, AD 2020 8:31pm

Our parish is requiring temp taking before we can enter the building. Two weeks ago we had a potluck, last week the usually coffee and doughnuts. But now-temp taking, and if we have a fever, will be asked to leave.
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The coffee shops, bars, and grocery stores don’t require that and are hungry for customers.
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I’m done with the masks, done with the temp taking. Done with the fear, and all the mendacity. I told my husband I refused to go to Church and be treated as a suspected leper. I relented on it, but I’m done. I’d rather stay home and pull the nails out of the studs in my flood-stripped basement, especially now I learn that Pope Francis is sympathetic to the view White Americans are racists.

Michael Dowd
Michael Dowd
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 1:17am

Let us compare “114,875” deaths “due” to CVD in 2020 with deaths due to other significant flues. Quotation marks mean to suggest that 2020 numbers are overstated for political purposes.
1957 “Asian” flu H2N2. 1.1 million died world wide; 116,000 in U.S. according to CDC.
1968 “Hong Kong flu H3N2. 1.0 million died world wide: 100,000 in the U.S per CDC.
2009 “Swine” flu H1N1. Up to 575,400 died world wide; U.S. deaths not provided by CDC.

I think the 2020 CVD statistics would be better understood if they were expressed by age group. Most of the CVD were among those over 65 and in poor health. CVD was the last straw. Also use of ventilators was the cause of many deaths.

Conclusion: Even assuming the 114,875 deaths due to CVD are accurate they are about the same as 1957 and 1968 where no lock downs were dictated Overall, I think locking down the economy for CVD was a huge mistake with much more serious long term consequences than the flu itself. Hopefully there will be an investigation into how CVD publicity and remedial action was handled by CDC, the MSM and the government overall. In my mind we were played by the Democrats to assure Trumps defeat.

Reference: https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-31-5-worst-flu-outbreaks-in-recent-history

Donald R. McClarey
Reply to  DJH
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 3:13am

I’m done with the masks, done with the temp taking. Done with the fear, and all the mendacity. I told my husband I refused to go to Church and be treated as a suspected leper. I relented on it, but I’m done. I’d rather stay home and pull the nails out of the studs in my flood-stripped basement, especially now I learn that Pope Francis is sympathetic to the view White Americans are racists.

Comment of the week DJH! Take ‘er away Sam!

Ben Butera
Admin
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 7:00am

Nice analysis Bob….
One thought on the comment… “Even assuming the 114,875 deaths due to CVD are accurate they are about the same as 1957 and 1968…”
I don’t think it’s good to compare death #’s before H1N1 in 2009 (swine flu). The medical system is better now; we’re getting good at keeping people alive and still >100k dead even with all the knowledge, means of quick communication, and all the precautions. I’m no fan of lock-downs, but put Covid-19 in a time machine back to 1957 and I’m thinking you’ll see a much bigger death toll.

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 7:49am

Pandemic panic porn will end when they say it will end.

OTOH, this could be the end of the World. As Catholics, we should be prepared for that at all times, anyway.

Who knows. Every week they contradict themselves and a new study comes out contradicting everything.

Yesterday, I made the following notes [with editorial, snide remarks]:

Study: 60% of people naturally resistant to SARS/China Virus New research suggests majority of people may already have resistance based on previous infections…

NPR: Mounting evidence suggests China Virus not as deadly as advertised in pandemic panic porn. It was all about GET TRUMP, anyhow. Or, experts fail again.

DJH
DJH
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 8:07am

Ben: A very large percent of Covid deaths occurred in nursing homes among very fragile people–victims of old age and, quite frankly, political/medical incompetence.
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Back in 1957, we had, overall, a much younger population, a much thinner population, less diabetes, less heart disease, less crowded into big cities, less warehoused in building sealed tight by energy efficient construction.
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We are a grey society, not as bad as, say, Japan, but getting there. We ought to be expecting this kind of thing–the increasingly rapid die off of a large part of our society.
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I’m thinking Covid19 would not have been nearly as interesting back in 1957 as today.

Rudolph Harrier
Rudolph Harrier
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 8:54am

I am beyond frustrated with my parish’s priest. For weeks he has talked about in his homilies how dangerous the Wuhan Flu is and how good it is that we have time to stay at home and meditate without distractions. He has dragged his feet on opening up the mass, and our church was the only one in the area that didn’t even open up its doors for private prayer. When he finally did open up, he imposed harsh restrictions and offered fewer masses than what he had originally promised.

Now in the current bulletin he spends nearly an entire page lecturing us about not being grateful enough to black people, and how it is completely understandable that people would protest (despite the extreme danger in his view).

He then switches to talking about mass attendance, and chastises us for not reaching the restricted capacity. This after telling us for weeks how dangerous it would be and saying that while mass is restarting no one is under any obligation to attend because it can be so risky. He then theorizes that this is due to lack of gratitude in God, just as we don’t have gratitude towards black people.

Before this pandemic he was a really solid priest who wasn’t swayed by media fads or political causes. But it’s like he’s lost his mind in panic.

Ben Butera
Admin
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 11:56am

DJH,
Consider Spanish flu in 1918 with a much younger population, a much thinner population, less diabetes, less heart disease, less crowded into big cities??, less warehoused in building sealed tight by energy efficient construction.

A lot of death….

Art Deco
Art Deco
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 12:27pm

Consider Spanish flu in 1918 with a much younger population, a much thinner population, less diabetes, less heart disease, less crowded into big cities??, less warehoused in building sealed tight by energy efficient construction.

Your point seems awfully confused. The Spanish flu hit the young adult population, with some from other age segments also affected. This is a disease of the old and of those in late middle age with weight problems. You had proportionately more people in the countryside (about 30% of all households had some farm income), but those living in any kind of settlement tended to be more densely packed, and intraurban movement crucially dependent on mass transit. The population density of my home town is about 1/3 lower than it was in 1920. That in Manhattan about 25% lower today. The frequency with which an urban dweller would encounter horse manure, coal dust, and contaminated food was far higher and the frequency with which they bathed and brushed their rotting teeth a great deal lower.

Ben Butera
Admin
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 2:39pm

Art,
Point being it is difficult to compare pandemics in the distant past and also recent/current pandemics in other nations because of many different demographic variables and the varying quality of healthcare.

The most relevant basis of comparison is probably the Swine flu pandemic in 2009 in the U.S. That virus may be very different and there was no lock-down, but many other variables relating to the population and healthcare would be similar.

DJH
DJH
Sunday, June 14, AD 2020 4:22pm

Ben: I can’t add much to what Art has said, though he left out the effects of WWI–which certainly could not have been helpful to anyone’s physical or mental health.
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You noted your belief that Covid19 would be a significant killer in 1957, but I don’t see how that could be true.

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